On June 25-26, the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2026) was held in Gdansk, Poland – the fifth annual conference on Ukraine's recovery. Around 5,000 participants representing about a hundred countries and international organizations gathered. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky was not present; he canceled his trip due to a loud scandal in relations with Poland (specifically, with the country's president, Andrzej Duda, though the article mentions Karol Nawrocki in relation to the Order of the White Eagle). The main outcome was the signing of 160 agreements totaling over 10 billion euros. This was announced by the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yulia Svyrydenko, following her visit to Gdansk. In total, according to expert estimates, such conferences over five years have gathered various commitments exceeding $210 billion. However, for post-war recovery, Ukraine needs at least $588 billion over ten years, and raising such funds will not be easy. Aid from the US has practically ceased, and in Europe, which has borne the main burden of expenses, there is increasing debate about what they have the strength for and what they don't. A photo exhibition 'Ukraine in Focus' by the Polish Press Agency (PAP) and the Ukrainian agency 'Ukrinform' was presented during the 'Ukraine Recovery-2026' conference at the European Solidarity Centre in Gdansk, Poland, on June 25, 2026. Photo: Marcin Gadomski / EPA. Without Zelensky and the White Eagle This year, the Ukrainian delegation was not represented at the highest level at the international conference. Neither President Volodymyr Zelensky, nor his wife Olena, who was also initially going to Gdansk, nor the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Andriy Sybiga, were present. The reason was a scandal that erupted after Kyiv's decision to name a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), which was responsible for, among other things, the mass violence against Poles (Novaya-Evropa wrote about this scandal in detail at the beginning of the week). 'President Zelensky has proven that Ukraine, in its mentality, in the matter of glorifying the bandits and murderers from the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, is not ready to be part of the European family,' stated Polish President Andrzej Duda, after which on June 19, he revoked Volodymyr Zelensky's Order of the White Eagle – Poland's most important state award. In response, three former presidents of Ukraine – Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Yushchenko, and Petro Poroshenko – voluntarily renounced their orders. 'Ukraine did not enter the struggle with Russia, which justified its invasion with historical claims, to have other countries dictate our history and determine whom we should honor today,' noted Leonid Kuchma, in particular. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk welcomes Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2026 at the European Solidarity Centre in Gdansk, Poland, June 25, 2026. Photo: Marcin Gadomski / EPA. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has long been in conflict with Duda and, in the midst of the current crisis, urged the two leaders to reconcile: 'Cooperation serves the interests of both states and peoples, while conflict serves the interests of Moscow.' Tusk failed to persuade Zelensky not to cancel his trip, but he ultimately found advantages in this: 'I am in constant contact with Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. She informed me that she would lead the delegation… This means, perhaps, an even more coordinated conference, without unnecessary tension.' 'Yulia, feel at home,' Tusk addressed Yulia Svyrydenko, welcoming her at the conference on June 25. She, in turn, thanked him for the support of the Poles and, specifically, Prime Minister Tusk. 'Larger, More Complex' Donald Tusk announced the main goal of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in advance: 'We want URC 2026 to be a conference that presents reconstruction projects, strengthens cooperation between local authorities, connects public and private partners, and creates a long-term foundation for Ukraine's development as a future member of the European Union.' Speaking about the agenda, Tusk promised substantive discussions on Ukraine's reconstruction projects – 'larger, more complex, covering entire regions and economic sectors.' All this so that, as Tusk clarified, the country ultimately becomes 'modern and resilient to future challenges.' At the same time, according to media reports, the Polish authorities had their own special interest: they wanted to persuade as many Western companies as possible to locate their logistics and transport hubs in Poland's eastern regions, which had seriously suffered from the war in terms of investment attractiveness. Kyiv formulated its expectations in the same vein: the conference should become a 'space for concrete solutions' – for investments, modernization of the energy sector, support for human capital, and restoration of critical infrastructure. The first agreements in Gdansk concerned support for Ukraine's energy system. On the eve of the official start of the conference, a meeting in the format of an energy 'Ramstein' took place. Representatives from 20 countries, the EU, and six international organizations participated. The main question: how to increase the system's resilience for the upcoming winter. Following the meeting, at least 375 million euros were raised for the restoration of energy infrastructure and new contributions to the fund for supporting Ukrainian energy. Partners from the USA, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Iceland, and Lithuania pledged additional assistance. Conference on the Recovery of Ukraine in 2026 at the European Solidarity Centre in Gdansk, Poland, June 25, 2026. Photo: Marcin Gadomski / EPA. In general, as reported by Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal, three dozen agreements between Ukrainian state and private energy companies and their partners were prepared for the conference. The total amount of agreements is over 1 billion euros. These include: £210 million – with the British Urenco for the supply of fuel for Ukrainian nuclear power plants; $300 million – with the American Exim Bank for Naftogaz; 90 million euros – with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for Ukrenergo. Yulia Svyrydenko summed up the overall results of the conference – even before its official closing. 'This day once again confirmed: Ukraine and Europe have a common path, common values, and a common future,' she wrote on her Telegram channel and spoke about some specific agreements: the transfer of the 'first tranche of the new EU financial instrument' to Ukraine (3.2 billion euros) [this refers to part of a 90 billion euro loan agreed upon by Europeans at the end of last year. – Ed.]; an agreement with the World Bank ($3.4 billion); the launch of the European Flagship Fund for Ukraine's Reconstruction; the creation of a Fund to Support Ukrainian Transport; the allocation of 140 million euros by partners for housing programs; an agreement with the European Investment Bank on the restoration and protection of roads in front-line regions; new partnerships in the defense industry and energy sectors. In total, according to Yulia Svyrydenko, 160 agreements were signed for a total amount of over 10 billion euros. The results of the previous Rome conference were slightly larger: over two hundred documents and about 13 billion euros in commitments in various fields – from energy to municipal projects. Continuation of What Was Started The history of such conferences began even before the full-scale war. Conferences dedicated to supporting Ukraine's reforms and European integration were hosted in London (2017), Copenhagen (2018), Toronto (2019), and Vilnius (2021). After the invasion began, the format changed. In July 2022, the basic principles of Ukraine's post-war recovery were agreed upon in Lugano, Switzerland. In 2023, participants of the London conference focused on attracting private funds, and the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the Ukraine Facility – a program to attract public and private investment for Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction. The goal was to raise 50 billion euros between 2024 and 2027. Photo exhibition 'Ukraine in Focus' by the Polish Press Agency (PAP) and the Ukrainian agency 'Ukrinform,' presented during the 'Ukraine Recovery-2026' conference at the European Solidarity Centre in Gdansk, Poland, June 25, 2026. Photo: Marcin Gadomski / EPA. In 2024, the conference in Berlin focused on four thematic areas: business (private investment, economic recovery, war risk insurance, guarantees); human dimension (veterans, internally displaced persons, education, healthcare, refugee return); local and regional issues (decentralization, municipal cooperation); European dimension (European integration, reforms, rule of law, path to the EU). The same topics were discussed in 2025 in Rome, which gathered a record number of participants – over 6,000. Gdansk added a fifth dimension to the framework of four: security and defense. The European Union directly encourages the integration of Ukrainian and European military-industrial complexes – up to the placement of Ukrainian defense production in member states and its connection through the SAFE instrument. 'For border Poland with its strong defense industry, this is more of an opportunity than a burden. Hence its push for an expanded conference agenda. As experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, USA) noted, 'due to the fragmentation of reporting, it is difficult to accurately count the total volume of commitments announced at URC conferences and the extent of their fulfillment.' However, approximate estimates are possible: as noted in CSIS, if the four conferences – Lugano, London, Berlin, and Rome – are summed up, approximately $200 billion in promised support in the form of grants, loans, guarantees, and various programs will be reached. Now, with the 10 billion euros from Gdansk, the amount is even larger. Continuous Growth The figure is impressive, but even more impressive is the so-called 'Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment' for Ukraine (RDNA5), announced in February 2026 by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the UN: approximately $588 billion over ten years is now required for these purposes – about three times Ukraine's GDP for 2025. The amount is increasing: the first report in autumn 2022 spoke of $349 billion, last year's of $524 billion, and the current one of $588 billion. Transport needs the most (over $96 billion) and energy (almost $91 billion) – needs in both sectors have sharply increased following strikes on ports, railways, and energy system facilities in the winter of 2025–2026. Next is housing (about $90 billion), trade and industry ($63 billion), and agriculture ($55 billion). A separate item is almost $28 billion for demining. Over four years under shelling, Ukraine has already spent a lot on urgent repairs: according to the same report, since February 2022, at least $20 billion in needs have been met through emergency repairs of housing, energy, schools, and transport. But the hole is growing faster than it is being patched. For example, by the end of 2025, 14% of the country's housing stock was damaged or destroyed, affecting over 3 million households. Behind these figures are millions of people who spent the winter in terrible conditions. People are generally the main priority and focus in all such discussions. 'The return of refugees, the reintegration of veterans, and the participation of women in the labor market will influence economic recovery no less than the inflow of capital and infrastructure restoration. Therefore, recovery should be human-oriented and rely on local communities,' noted, for example, the UN Resident Coordinator in Ukraine for Humanitarian and Development Affairs, Matthias Schmale. This is why the 'human dimension' is one of the five at the Gdansk conference. Donor Fatigue Analogies with the Marshall Plan – the US program to aid Europe after World War II – come to mind when discussing financial aid to Kyiv (analogies are drawn, among others, by Volodymyr Zelensky). But there are obvious differences. Then, the money came after the conflict ended; now, post-conflict recovery is being discussed in the midst of war, and the bill is growing before our eyes. Then, in 1948–1952, it was about $13.3 billion (according to the estimate of the US George Marshall Fund, about $150–170 billion in today's money), and now the bill is already $588 billion. Then, a wealthy hegemon provided the money; now, it's a tired and fragmented coalition without a clear leader. The US was such a leader before, but the change of power in January 2025 changed everything. US military aid to Ukraine for 2025 has effectively ceased, and the entire burden has fallen on Europe. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany), US aid has decreased by almost 99%. At the same time, the volume of financial and humanitarian support from Europe has increased by 59%, and military aid by 67% compared to the average figures for 2022–2024. Due to this, a collapse was avoided, although, for example, the amount of military aid allocated to Kyiv was a record low for the entire period of the full-scale war – 31 billion euros (the previous year it was about 34 billion euros). The volume of financial and humanitarian aid was about 36 billion euros (a decrease of approximately 8 billion euros compared to 2024). Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (4th), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (right), and other officials in front of the Artus Court during the Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2026 in Gdansk, Poland, June 25, 2026. Photo: Adam Warsawa / EPA. Growing stratification within Europe is hidden behind the average figures. Italy cut its already modest military aid by 15% compared to 2022–2024 levels, and Spain provided no new military packages in 2025. 'The decline in support from Spain and Italy is a noticeable step backward,' notes Taro Nishikawa, curator of the Kiel Institute's tracker monitoring aid to Ukraine. However, Paris, Berlin, and London have sharply increased military allocations: Germany has almost tripled its average monthly volume, while France and Britain have more than doubled. Although, as a share of GDP, all three still lag behind the 'northern quartet': Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Two Wallets Here, a subtlety needs attention: money for combat operations and for recovery are in different wallets. Europe is still willing to finance air defense and drones – this is a matter of front-line stability and, ultimately, the security of the entire European space. But finding money, say, for the multi-year reconstruction of the energy system is much more difficult. News that Kyiv has prepared an emergency energy strengthening plan for almost 5.4 billion euros for the winter of 2026–2027, and immediately faced a lack of funds to pay for it, is telling. As the Kyiv Independent reported on June 10, citing sources in Ukraine's energy sector, the government is facing a funding shortage. Although negotiations with international partners, including the EU, are ongoing, the Ukrainian budget is currently bearing the main costs of winter preparation. The EU remains Ukraine's largest partner in the energy sector, having provided about 3 billion euros in aid since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion. However, a separate financing package specifically for the energy sustainability plan is not yet being considered. According to an EC representative, this is particularly unlikely after Brussels agreed to a large 90 billion euro loan package in April. According to Kyiv Independent sources, Kyiv is considering directing part of the funds from this loan to finance the plan. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala speaks at the opening of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2026 at the European Solidarity Centre in Gdansk, Poland, June 25, 2026. Photo: Marcin Gadomski / EPA. Recall that Kyiv will have to repay the loan only after Russia pays it reparations. If Moscow refuses, frozen Russian assets will be used for these purposes. The loan became a compromise agreed upon at the EU summit in December 2025. The possibility of using at least 210 billion euros of the Bank of Russia's reserves, frozen in the West after the start of the Russian invasion, was discussed there. Of these, about 193 billion are held in the Belgian depositary Euroclear. Belgium precisely blocked this initiative. Prime Minister Bart De Wever set three strict conditions – general risk sharing among all EU members, liquidity guarantees, and fair burden sharing for all asset holders – and did not back down even after fifteen hours of negotiations. 'Rationality prevailed,' he summarized immediately after burying the initiative. The EU's 90 billion euro package was initially considered sufficient to cover Ukraine's needs until the end of 2027, but estimates have been revised. As The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported in late April, citing sources, in 2027 Ukraine may face a budget deficit of approximately 19 billion euros. This refers to a gap in funding for key expenses: social benefits, public sector salaries, infrastructure support, and part of defense spending not covered by international military aid. Among the key reasons, WSJ cited slower-than-expected economic recovery due to regular attacks on energy and industrial infrastructure, increased defense spending (particularly for air defense systems, drones, and logistics), and the prolonged war. Another Missed Deadline Ultimately, everything hinges on the last factor: how long the war will last. In February 2026, Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the US had given the parties until June to negotiate peace. The deadline has passed, and rounds of negotiations in the UAE and Switzerland have not brought breakthroughs. The scale of destruction and the number of casualties continue to grow. May 2026, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, was the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since April 2022: at least 274 deaths confirmed, with another 1763 injured. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a press conference after a meeting of the prime ministers of eight Northern and Baltic countries (NB8) in Tallinn, Estonia, June 9, 2026. Photo: Valda Kalnina / EPA. In early June, the day after a drone attack on St. Petersburg, Volodymyr Zelensky published an open letter to Vladimir Putin, proposing a personal meeting in a neutral country and a complete ceasefire. In the same letter, Zelensky overturned the thesis of donor fatigue: 'The world is not tired of Ukraine, which you have long counted on. But there is fatigue from Russia, even among those in the global world who help you circumvent sanctions and keep the economy afloat.' At the same time, Zelensky said he had seen 'intelligence documents' indicating Putin's plans to continue the war in 2027 and 2028. Putin's response, stating that he does not see the point in meeting yet, indirectly confirmed this information. Thus, it is likely that in the foreseeable future, the amount of funds needed for Ukraine's recovery will only grow. However, a respite is possible – if the '40-day operation to influence the aggressor state to cease hostilities' announced by Zelensky the day before is successful.
