The War Trump Can’t End For nearly five decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained a consistent focus on resisting America, making conflict with the U.S. central to its identity rather than advancing its people’s welfare. This ideological deadlock, coupled with structural issues, prevents mutually acceptable deals, as both sides demand more and concede less than ever before. The U.S. seeks resolution and a deal, while Iran’s commitment to revolution necessitates an adversary, ensuring the conflict’s continuation.

• Iran’s Islamic Republic has a 47-year history of ideological conflict with the United States, viewing resistance as central to its identity.
• The current U.S.-Iran deadlock is ideological and structural, preventing either side from accepting a deal that the other might offer.
• The Strait of Hormuz has become Iran’s primary leverage, with its control posing a deterrent against attacks and a potential revenue stream.
• Iran’s negotiating style is described as ‘bazaar style,’ characterized by continuous bargaining requiring immense patience.
• Tehran has learned from history that regimes relinquishing weapons programs become vulnerable, while those with nuclear shields, like North Korea, survive.
• The Trump administration offers Iran two paths: abandoning nuclear ambitions and hostility for economic investment, or maintaining the status quo with continued sanctions and potential war.
• Iran has historically made major compromises only when faced with overwhelming pressure, a viable diplomatic exit, and no demand to change its revolutionary identity.
• The fundamental problem in U.S.-Iran relations is that the U.S. needs a deal, while Iran needs the U.S. as an adversary.