Key Takeaways


Michael Howell warned that the global financial system is nearing the peak of its liquidity cycle, with debt refinancing risks mounting as trillions in cheap, long-dated obligations begin to roll over. The Fed and Treasury are effectively engaged in stealth yield curve control, suppressing volatility to keep the system stable, but this path risks “Japanification” and entrenched monetary inflation. With 80% of global lending collateral-based, stability in Treasury markets has become critical, while China’s aggressive liquidity injections and gold monetization signal a shift toward hard assets. Howell argued that gold and Bitcoin stand out as essential hedges, with Bitcoin’s strategic value rising as an independent, long-term safe asset outside government control.

Best Quotes

“Almost every financial crisis, if you look back, has been a debt refinancing crisis in some way.”

“In 4,000 years of recorded interest rate history, there’s no mention of zero rates, until COVID.”

“What they want is yield curve control. They can’t afford volatility in collateral markets because 80% of global lending now depends on collateral.”

“If I’m optimistic about gold, I have to be optimistic about Bitcoin.”

“What would happen if you could only invest in short-dated government debt or Bitcoin?”

“The U.S. may be the cleanest shirt in the laundry, but it’s still in the laundry.”

Conclusion

Howell sees the system entering a dangerous phase where liquidity is peaking, debt pressures are intensifying, and policymakers have few tools left beyond suppressing volatility and monetizing debt. This will drive monetary inflation, erode real wealth, and make hard-asset hedges indispensable. Gold and Bitcoin, he argues, are positioned to benefit most, with Bitcoin in particular evolving from a liquidity-sensitive risk asset into a strategic safe haven in a world of accelerating debt cycles and weakening fiat credibility.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro

1:12- Big day at Jackson Hole

7:57 - Bessent’s contradictions

14:03 - Yield curve control

18:35 - Bitkey & Unchained

20:16 - AI and global liquidity cycle

35:01 - Stablecoins

38:44 - Obscura and Opportunity Cost

40:09 - Mechanics and future of liquidity cycles

46:42 - Questioning AI productivity

52:18 - China’s influence on liquidity cycle

Transcript

(00:00) If you look at the last 5 to 10 years, we've labeled that the everything bubble. Fed liquidity was up 350 billion. The broad balance sheet fell by about 250. You've got liquidity and the balance sheet going in opposite directions. We're talking about taking 3 to400 billion out of money markets.

(00:18) Disconnection from financial markets and the real economy. Almost every financial crisis, if you look back, has been a debt refinancing crisis in some way. 80% of all lending worldwide now is collaterally based. Nowhere in that book is there any mention of zero interest rates. So in 4,000 years we haven't had it, but we did have it in CO. It's a form of yield curve control.

(00:37) What they'd like is JPAL to come interest rates. The US may well be the cleanest shirt in the laundry, but you know, hey, it's in the laundry. We are reaching a peak 6 months, 9 months time. We're clearly getting late in the cycle. Stable coin are a great mechanism to buy treasuries, but it basically creates a sort of virtual circle.

(00:53) So it's effectively printing money. What would happen in the world if you could only invest in shortdated government debt or you can invest in Bitcoin? Why was 2024 so depressed? The Chinese were trying to shadow a strong dollar and they couldn't do it. I'm very optimistic of gold. If I'm optimistic of gold, I got to be optimistic of Bitcoin.

(01:13) Michael How, thank you for joining me again. Big day. Yeah, big day today. Big day out in Jackson Hole. Everybody's waiting with uh baited breath to see what Jerome Pal is going to say. I was watching uh I couldn't sleep this morning. I woke up at 3:30 a.m. and just decided to get up and start working and have been watching CNBC and it's been funny watching their commentary.

(01:37) A lot of back and forth I think considering that this meeting is happening today. Um we'll post this on Monday and so I guess the pressure is on to sort of predict what Jerome Pal is going to do. How would you describe his current predicament and what he may or may not do later today? Well, I think it's it's it's clearly a difficult situation.

(02:01) You know, they uh they always say as an old Irish joke that um where they say to travelers, how do you get from here to Dublin? And the answer is uh well, if I was going to Dublin, I wouldn't be starting from here. And I think that, you know, that's pretty much what I would describe the Fed situation is.

(02:20) I mean Jerome Pal is in a difficult situation given the uh the sort of push back or aggressive push back he gets from the administration. Uh I mean that's for sure. U but I think the other thing is that they kind of painted themselves in a corner a bit. I mean on most on most counts rates should be lower than they are. I think he finds it difficult now to probably admit that.

(02:38) Um so there is some resistance but I think you can see within the FOMC uh there is a growing uh willingness I think to cut interest rates. I think given what's going on internationally and uh with rates and maybe as well what's happened lately to the dollar the rally uh the weakening in the US economy. I think there's grounds for for rates to be cut. That's for sure.

(03:01) I think the more difficult question, which is, you know, something I'm sure we're going to dig into, is really what happens to the Fed balance sheet, uh, the Fed operating system, you know, looking at longer term because they've been promising us some information about the new operating, uh, uh, procedures of the Fed for a long time now and nothing's come out. So I kind of expect or maybe maybe think that they're going to do something announce something at Jackson Hole about the new operating procedures that they've been talking and thinking about for some time now. Uh that that may come out in an

(03:31) announcement. But I think the the the more fundamental question is what happens to liquidity and really the size of the balance sheet. And I think that's relevant given the fact that if you look over the first six, seven months of the year, uh Fed liquidity, the amount of money that the Federal Reserve injects into money markets, actually was up 350 billion.

(03:59) Uh even though the overall balance sheet uh itself, the broad balance sheet fell by about uh 250 billion. So you've got liquidity and the balance sheet going in opposite directions. And that's kind of because uh there are you know other ways of injecting liquidity into the system apart from the headline balance sheet um you know number uh and that's things like the treasury general account the reverse repo program uh etc.

(04:19) And they've been actually positively buzzing and actually adding money to markets which is why risk assets have kind of done so well over the last few months. Uh the question is that if the Treasury is insisting on rebuilding that account, their account at the Fed, the Treasury General account which was forcibly run down because of the debt ceiling, if that now is rebuilt in the second half of the year, then a lot of liquidity is going to come out of markets.

(04:43) Now, that's what investors are fearing. I don't think it's going to come to that because I just don't think they're in a position where they can do that. And that's why I say I think the Fed has kind of painted itself into a corner a bit here. Yeah. in terms of choreographing or making the market aware of new operations.

(05:02) Can we dive into that in in terms of what they may or may not change or what the market is looking for them to change? Yeah, I think that a lot of the market talk is really about whether they're going to change, you know, average inflation targeting to, you know, maybe change the nuance of that.

(05:21) Could they, you know, change the symmetry in uh in that in that gold? That could be done. um you know for example I think that that's one of the things that is sort of high on the agenda as a change um there could be more technical things about um uh uh about how their operating procedures are changed I mean that that may be necessary but I would say you know one of the things that may come in and this has been mooted in terms of what the Fed has wanted to do is maybe they're going to announce that they're going to be uh a bigger buyer of Treasury bills in the market uh than

(05:52) they have been now one of the things that was suggested or has been suggested uh in speeches over recent months is that the makeup of the uh Federal Reserve's holdings of government debt the uh the SOM account, the so-called SO account is generally vested in longer duration treasuries. So things like 10-year notes for example, and that's not really um the sort of representative of the average mix of treasury debt uh out there in the market.

(06:23) uh there's as you know there's been a lot of very very short-term issuance uh operating particularly under Yelen but you know Scott Besson's continued that and so the treasury is slated to issue a lot more bills now on the one hand that's uh you know playing to this whole argument about stable coins being big buyers of treasuries in the future and they like bills sure I I go along with that but then the Federal Reserve should be matching if you like in it hold in its sr account u the average uh mix of debt in the market and the moment they're not

(06:55) uh their s account is too heavily weighted to longe