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TFTC – Truth for the Commoner

Bitcoin Brief

=============


Sup, freaks. Remember when we reported that Coinbase was lobbying to kill Bitcoin's de minimis tax exemption while pushing one for stablecoins? Brian Armstrong called it misinformation. Now the PARITY Act draft has landed, and it confirms everything we warned about. Stablecoins get the tax break. Bitcoin gets left behind. The mask is fully off.

The Fed pivot just reversed course completely. Markets are now pricing in rate HIKES, not cuts, with a 30% chance the fed funds rate ends 2026 higher than the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. Rate cut odds have collapsed to just 2.9%. The driver is oil, which has surged 36% since the Iran war began in February, now trading above $115 per barrel. Powell speaks at Harvard today on the inflation-growth dilemma, while Philly Fed's Harker warns that a Hormuz Strait closure could feed inflation expectations "quickly and durably." This is the kind of monetary policy whiplash that makes hard money look sensible.

LEAD STORY

### The PARITY Act Drops and It Confirms Everything We Reported: Stablecoins Get the Tax Break, Bitcoin Gets Left Behind

Earlier this month, [we reported](https://www.tftc.io/coinbase-lobbying-against-bitcoin-de-minimis-tax-exemption/) that Coinbase was quietly lobbying to kill a real de minimis tax exemption for Bitcoin while pushing one that only applied to stablecoins like USDC. Brian Armstrong called it "totally false" and "misinformation." Some accused us of lying. We stood firm and offered to have Brian on the podcast to clear the air.

Now the latest draft of the [PARITY Act](confirms exactly what we warned about(https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/bitcoiners-cry-foul-over-us-crypto-tax-bill/?ref=tftc.io). The bill creates a $200 de minimis exemption for stablecoins but leaves Bitcoin out entirely. Every small Lightning payment, every sat transaction, every time you buy lunch with bitcoin, it is still a taxable event requiring capital gains calculations. Stablecoins, which are pegged and barely fluctuate, get the exemption they barely need.

It gets worse. The bill offers a tax deferral for "passive validation," which means staking, but structurally excludes Bitcoin miners. As the [Bitcoin Policy Institute put it](https://x.com/bitcoinpolicy/status/2037630088108474663?ref=tftc.io): "Rather than promoting parity, this draft picks winners and losers." Proof-of-Work miners, who incur massive costs for electricity, hardware, and infrastructure, get stuck with the same phantom income problem while stakers get relief. This is not an oversight. It is industrial policy against domestic Bitcoin mining at a time when we should be leaning into energy abundance and securing the hardest monetary network.

Follow the money and the incentives are clear. Coinbase made $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue last year, up 48% year over year, almost entirely from yield on the Treasuries backing USDC. A proper Bitcoin de minimis would let people spend sats on everyday purchases without triggering taxable events, and that directly competes with the centralized yield machine. The Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone [acknowledged](We weren't lying. Our sources weren't lying. The draft proves the reporting was on target.(https://x.com/tftc21/status/2037596051809677633?ref=tftc.io)

SIGNAL

### Markets Now Pricing In Rate Hikes as Fed Does a Complete 180

Just weeks ago, markets expected multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026. Now [CME FedWatch](speaks at Harvard today(https://www.reuters.com/business/horns-an-inflation-growth-dilemma-fed-chair-powell-speak-harvard-2026-03-30/?ref=tftc.io) on the classic stagflation dilemma. Philly Fed President Harker has warned that Hormuz closure may feed "quickly and durably" into higher inflation expectations.

SIGNAL

### Square Bitcoin Payments Go Live TODAY

Why it matters: Millions of merchants now accept bitcoin by default, no opt-in required.

Square is auto-enabling bitcoin payments for ALL eligible sellers effective March 30, 2026. This isn't a pilot program or beta test. Millions of merchants who use Square for payment processing can now accept bitcoin out of the box. No longer do you need to convince your local coffee shop or barber to turn on bitcoin payments. It's just there, ready to go. [Nick Slaney spotted the terms of service update back on March 17](the mass merchant adoption we've been waiting for(https://www.tftc.io/square-bitcoin-payments-cftc-self-custody-oklo-nuclear-wins/).

### Morgan Stanley Launching Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) at 0.14% Fee

Why it matters: First spot bitcoin ETF from a major US bank undercuts BlackRock and Grayscale.

This is the first spot bitcoin ETF from a major US bank. Ticker: MSBT. The fee of 0.14% (14 basis points) undercuts BlackRock's IBIT at 0.25% and even Grayscale Mini at 0.15%. [Bloomberg's James Seyffart expects an April launch](this is the first under the Morgan Stanley brand for bitcoin(https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/27/morgan-stanley-enters-bitcoin-etf-race-with-market-leading-low-fee?ref=tftc.io). When a 150-year-old Wall Street institution puts its name on a bitcoin product, that's institutional credibility at scale.

### Goldman Sachs Quietly Calls Bitcoin Bottom

Why it matters: Major investment bank sees crypto equity valuations as "increasingly attractive."

[Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro says crypto equities are down 46% since October 2025, making valuations "increasingly attractive."](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/goldman-sachs-bitcoin-might-have-bottomed?ref=tftc.io) The bank expects the volume trough to recover within the typical 3-month median period. Their top picks: Robinhood, Figure Technologies (price target raised to $42), and Coinbase. They warned that volumes could dip further, creating a roughly 2% revenue hit and 4% profit hit for crypto companies. But the positioning suggests Goldman thinks the worst is behind us. Bernstein echoed the outlook, maintaining their $150,000 year-end Bitcoin target.

### Giovanni Santostasi Proves 4-Year Halving Cycle Is a Mathematical Eigenmode

Why it matters: The 4-year cycle isn't just narrative, it's fundamental to Bitcoin's mathematical structure.

Using eigenvalue decomposition techniques (SSA + DMD), [Giovanni Santostasi proved the 4-year cycle is a fundamental eigenmode of Bitcoin's dynamics](DMD modes 5-6 reveal a period of 1,530 days = 4.19 years(https://x.com/giovann35084111/status/2038439923968291006?ref=tftc.io) (the halving cycle). Even the residual "noise" (0.6%) follows power law correlations, showing fractal structure at every timescale. Bitcoin behaves like a critical system near a phase transition. The model achieves R² = 0.9678 reconstruction from just 6 eigenvectors. Math doesn't lie.

SIGNAL

### World Uncertainty Index Hits 105,000, the Highest Level in Recorded History

The World Uncertainty Index just printed [105,000](https://x.com/tftc21/status/2038256092807836120?ref=tftc.io), surpassing every prior crisis on record. Higher than Covid. Higher than 9/11. Higher than the Iraq War and the Global Financial Crisis combined. The index, which tracks uncertainty across 143 countries using Economist Intelligence Unit reports, is reflecting the convergence of the Iran war, oil shock, central bank paralysis, and fracturing global trade routes. F