One Nation’s Secret Harbour Win Shatters Labor’s Safe-Seat Myth

One Nation’s Secret Harbour Win Shatters Labor’s Safe-Seat Myth
Labor’s 37-year hold on Secret Harbour has been broken, exposing a sharp realignment in Western Australian politics and raising questions about whether One Nation can convert protest support into a durable national challenge.

One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen defeated Labor’s Georgia Tree by 57 percent to 43 percent on a two-candidate-preferred basis. His victory was built on roughly 39 percent of the primary vote, compared with Labor’s 24 percent and the Liberal Party’s 17 percent. The result is especially significant because Secret Harbour had long been regarded as a safe Labor seat—and because One Nation won where the Coalition had repeatedly struggled to make an impact.

The conservative interpretation is that Labor’s attack on One Nation backfired. Pauline Hanson rejected claims that the result represented a danger to Australia, arguing instead that it showed voters were searching for an alternative to the major parties. She said the result should be “a warning to Labor” and declared, “we’re coming for more of your seats.”

The liberal-leaning account likewise treated the result as a breakthrough, but emphasized its broader implications: growing support for One Nation, a setback for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government and a crisis for the Liberal Party. Western Australian One Nation leader Rod Caddies said the result would send “shock waves across the entire country” and claimed, “There are no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country any more.”

Both perspectives agree that the vote marked a major rupture. They differ over what it means. One Nation sees evidence that former Labor voters are moving decisively to the populist right; the wider result also shows a fragmented opposition, with the Liberals’ distant third place making the party’s challenge to Labor even less convincing. Liberal frontbencher Jonno Duniam conceded, “That is not a good outcome for my party,” underscoring that the by-election was not merely a Labor loss but a warning to the established right as well.