Democrats Gain Ground With Independents as Trump’s Second Term Weighs on the Midterms

Democrats Gain Ground With Independents as Trump’s Second Term Weighs on the Midterms
Gallup’s latest party-affiliation figures point to a widening Democratic edge before the 2026 midterms—but they also underscore how unsettled the electorate remains. Democrats are gaining among independents even as a growing share of voters reject both major parties.

Among voters who call themselves independent, 49% now say they “lean more toward the Democratic Party,” compared with 39% who lean Republican, according to the quarterly survey. That 10-point advantage is four points larger than in the first quarter of 2025, shortly after Donald Trump returned to the White House.

The broader shift is also visible among voters who openly identify with a party. Democrats now account for 31% of respondents, up from 28% when Trump took office, while Republicans remain at 28%. The figures suggest that Trump’s second term may be pushing some voters toward Democrats—or at least away from Republicans.

The liberal interpretation is more sweeping. One account describes the result as a “sharp reversal” from the four-point Republican advantage recorded in late 2024, when Trump won the presidency and Republicans controlled both chambers of Congress. It links the shift to dissatisfaction over tariffs, federal workforce cuts, a major spending bill and the war in Iran, arguing that Democrats could benefit in House races this November.

The conservative-side account is more restrained, emphasizing movement among independents rather than declaring a broad partisan realignment. Both perspectives, however, point to the same complication: Americans are increasingly reluctant to identify with either party. Independents reached 45% last year, while only 27% identified as either Democrats or Republicans. That volatility could help Democrats—but it also makes any midterm forecast fragile.