A prisoner swap signals progress, but Russia’s terms keep peace out of reach.

A prisoner swap signals progress, but Russia’s terms keep peace out of reach.
A major prisoner exchange has given U.S.-brokered negotiations a tangible result, but it has not narrowed the central divide: Ukraine wants credible protection after the war, while Russia continues to demand territory and a broader reshaping of Europe’s security order.

The Abu Dhabi talks brought the first direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations since February and an agreement on what was described as the war’s largest prisoner exchange. Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia called the Russian delegation’s instructions “very, very strict,” even as he reported “really big progress” on postwar security guarantees. The contrast captures the talks’ uneven outcome: humanitarian progress, but no resolution of the terms of peace.

U.S. envoy Jared Kushner struck a more hopeful note, saying negotiators had found areas where compromise might be possible, while acknowledging that other issues required further discussion. The American account likewise emphasized the prisoner deal and “some openings and some opportunities,” but conceded that territorial and security disputes remained unresolved.

The optimism is sharply tested by Moscow’s stated position. Russian official Vladimir Medinsky said “every inch of our land will be returned to Russia, one way or another,” and framed the talks as a chance to create a new European security system. Those demands extend the dispute beyond Ukraine’s borders and raise concerns that its future—and Europe’s—could be negotiated over European governments’ heads.

Europe’s role remains contested. Kushner said Washington hoped to bring Europeans into future discussions, while Lavrov dismissed their presence in Abu Dhabi, telling them to “sit there in the hotel.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, called the moment a “window of opportunity” but said results would depend heavily on how the United States engaged Moscow. A public statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio also emphasized a U.S. focus on “a durable and lasting peace,” though it offered no detail on how the remaining disputes might be resolved.

The exchange may build trust between families and negotiators. But with attacks continuing and core demands intact, humanitarian progress is not yet evidence of a workable peace.