26 Feb 2025- The stock market remains closed today. Since October 2024, the Nifty index has been gradually going down for five consecutive months. It has lost 15 points from the top, and nobody knows the reason. One school of thought is that this is natural profit-booking after a period of excessive upward movement. Others see it as a more structural problem, with growth slowing down and international trade becoming more autistic. From the low point of April 2020 (~8000), the index had a phenomenal run to 26,300 with a CAGR of 28%.

• An astute investor would have felt the alarm bells ringing at least twice: in the middle of 2021 and 2024, with the market entering overbought territory well above 70%. After the 2021 peak, with 72% overbought, it remained flat for the next 1 to 1.5 years. Once the market started touching below neutral, it started moving up until it reached 26300, with 83% overbought.
• He would have moved all his accumulated equity to high-grade bonds or G-secs and waited for the exuberance to come down to near 50%, or at the very least, he would have bought some insurance against the downside. For his new savings, he would have continued to accumulate equity systematically, expecting prices to come down or stay flat for an extended period of time, buying all the way down to the bottom.
• Now after this 15 point correction the market seems nearing neutral, close to 55%.

**27 Feb 2025 **- The stock market is dead flat today.\

• Neither knew nor thought about any of the things we discussed yesterday. In mid-2021, happily kept all accumulated capital in equity and kept on buying new equity. Incidentally, around that time, found out that the full broker was charging 1% for all buys and sells. Sold all the holdings to start investing in a discount broker with 0% brokerage. By August 2024, all capital was still in equity.
  Out of luck or contingency, converted everything into G-sec bonds, only to see the market rise by 5 more points before eventually losing 15 points over the next 5-7 months. At the same time, had purchased insurance against unexpected violent index movements in either direction and lost all the premium till date. Also buying the index with new income systematically all the way from April 2023 and is still continuing. - When to convert the bonds to equity? My initial thought is that it should be done when the market has bottomed out! But how can one know the bottom and top? For me, it is impossible to determine. I have a very low threshold for moving capital from equity to bonds—I may do so if exuberance exceeds 80%. The reverse is true when moving capital from bonds to equity. I should do so only after a significant draw-down of, say, 50%, with the market being oversold to 30% or below.
  - Saw that NASDAQ and GOLD are in over bought territory and immediately sold them and bought LIQUIDBEES.
  - HANG SANG is around 60% over bought. Also felt that NATCO is trading at 50% and is in oversold territory. Company has got good reserves and believes it is good time to build a position slowly. NMDC is also in the screen and started to build position slowly.

28 Feb 2025 - More than 2 point sell-off in NASDAQ and close to 2 point sell off in NIFTY. All stocks are down in similar proportions or more. It is interesting time. Trump is stirring the economic and geopolitical landscape on a daily basis. His tit for tat tariff plans are particularly interesting. Overall I believe that Trump is generally good for us. Less people are getting killed at-least. I believe that tariffs breed inefficient industrialists and rob the consumers. This is especially true in case of India. I hope Trump will force us to reduce tariffs with a long term benefit of better industries, better quality products and lower costs

5 March 2025- Monday and Tuesday the markets went down more than 2 points. Trump tariff of 25% targeting Canada and Mexico came to effect yesterday. China gets an additional 10%. Canada, Mexico and China constitute 50% of US trade. I believe it is an act of war and the ultimate loser will be the common man; Job loss, Inflation and falling value of investments. Plans to continue with NIFTY SIP.

**6 March 2025 - **The market moved up around 1 point both yesterday and today. India is a high-tariff country. Any reciprocal tariffs imposed by Trump could lead to a reduction in Indian tariffs, benefiting consumers and innovators. Initiated a monthly SIP in NATCO and NMDC today, believing these are cheap and quality stocks. At the macro level, Trump’s actions for the USA are akin to what Brexit has done to England. This presents opportunities for the rest of the world, and we know where England stands today economically.

8 March 2025- Yesterday market remained flat. NASDAQ has fallen around 5 points this month. Year till date it is down by around 4 points where as NIFTY is around 5 points down. HANGSENG has moved up 23 points!

9 March , 2025

My past mistakes

- Took a loan to buy laptop and camera in 2005 while doing masters!! And that laptop was damaged beyond repair 1 year later during a lightning. I stopped repaying; until I got humiliating calls from the people concerned… Did not know anything about finance at that time.

- Took car loans (2008,2012) and personal loans (2009) soon after starting to earn. Personal loans were used to refurbish ancestral house; probably had no other option at that time. 2008 car loan was a desperate decision but probably helped one of my uncles during great financial crisis. At least** I should have avoided the second car loan in 2012.**

- After 2013, Buying and sizing decisions was almost always appropriate for stocks. But, often sell decisions were imprecise and missed out big opportunities (especially with SJVN).

- Bought multiple expensive mobile phones every 3-4 years. In between one phone was stolen immediately after I bought it!!

- Bought expensive macbooks (3!) over a period of 12 years. Also multiple kindles(5), ipads(2), eink readers(2).

• No more personal or car loans, no loans if possible.

• No more iPads

• No more kindles

• No more laptop/e reader unless broken.

• Sizing and selling decisions to be improved

**13 March 2025 - **Started OILIETF sip on Monday. Oil is down for some time now. Market remains uncertain, but despite NASDAQ falls, it remains sideways. What happens between Russians and Americans today and this week will set the future course for Europe and China. I personally believe that US need Russia and the Indo-Pacific by their side more than Europe at this point of time. Their main intend is to contain China than anything else now. I wont be surprised if US completely withdraw from NATO and Europe all together.

16 March 2025 - It seems that the relationship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump mirrors historical examples of business and political alliances, such as Kenneth Lay’s close ties with George W. Bush in the 1990s or even the much older association between John Law and the authoritarian French regime. These relationships often lead to significant bad financial and political consequences.

- More over, tariff policies may end up strengthening industries and economies worldwide, while inadvertently undermining America’s own economic position and competitiveness.

21 March 2025 - Market is keeping the up-trend intact. Yesterday Mr P switched his June put and call options to December following a more than 1 point upside move in NIFTY.

23 March 2025 - Stock market compounding is often interrupted by long periods of inactivity and rare, but significant, draw-downs. In many cases, nearly all gains come from a few days of exuberance; without these days, returns can be close to zero or even negative when adjusted for inflation. Therefore, if we maintain market exposure, we should hedge against potential draw-downs using always on put options.

-* One good strategy is to keep most funds in a low-cost debt instrument and re-balance to full equity during market panics. However, this approach risks missing the few days of lucrative returns without any draw-downs. I believe that buying always-on long-term call options is a potential method to mitigate the risk of not participating fully in the market.*

- Options will expire worthless is >80% situations, with potential big returns during violence. One problem with this is STCG tax and tax filing.

- For short-term goals—say, within a one-year time frame—and in overbought markets it may be wiser to keep capital in money market instruments, such as liquid funds, rather than relying on the non existent compounding effects of the stock market.

- Navigated the correction phase well, achieving good capital appreciation despite losing all the option premiums so far. Expects the market to revert to the mean in the coming days, with further correction likely. As a result, have temporarily paused NIFTY 50 index SIP and decided to park new income in a liquid index fund for a lump-sum investment at a later date.

- Am fully aware that the market can rise irrationally, and may miss out on potential gains. However, believe that in such a scenario, call options may generate returns, partially compensating for the opportunity cost. My primary objective is to avoid losing capital rather than focusing solely on opportunity cost. Current equity exposure is around 15% and plans to move it to 50% over some months if the market is going further down, with the new incomes.

- 5.54 7/2.85 7

24 March 2025 - The market has been moving up for the past week, but I believe this is a false move. The RSI is moving towards overbought territory, and prices are not cheap, and I would like both to go down.

- Have temporarily paused NIFTY SIP, which was started in April 2023, and has begun parking new funds in a liquid ETF. Additionally, sold his NATCO holdings as I realized that I did not understand the business as well as I initially thought.

2 April 2025 - Trump’s tariffs are looming large, and NIFTY has dropped to the 23,160s, down by around 13 points from the top. However, I would like the RSI-MA to come down to 60. A level below 20000-19000 will be a good time to deploy back the LIQUIDBEES to nifty. NASDAQ is down by around 12 points. For NDX, a good entry would be around 16000 or below! For HSI, it is little more closer, just 10 points fall needed.

- Trying to time the market like this is foolishness.

3 April 2025 - What the general media is talking less about now is the sharp decline in the 10-year Government of India bond yield, which has dropped by more than 10% over the past year. Last month alone, it fell by around 4.5%, and in the last two days, it has declined by about 1.2%! It would be naive to assume that this drop is solely due to expectations of rate cuts and increased liquidity. Instead, I believe it reflects a flight of smart money to safety—a phenomenon that could further accelerate the downward movement in equity markets.

- Bought some OILIETF; thinking that oil has not moved much for last 10 years, now it should be moving!

4 April 2025 - NASDAQ down by around 10 points in 2 days. Surprisingly NIFTY, HSI holding firm relatively. Exciting times ahead.* Should one start deploying or wait?* I believe some more downside is there to the market…lets wait for the 14 dma to come down little more.

7 April 2025 - HSI fell around 13-14 points, NIFTY ~4 points. NMDC fell 7 points. Sold some Liquid-bees and bought NMDC. Oil is down to 4 year low. Both points towards upcoming recession fears.

8 April 2025 - HSI and NIFTY are up by around 2 points. NIFTY fell very little after tariff announcement. Surprising.

• Bought some more NMDC.

• NDX: RSI 48 RSI-MA 68; down by 24 points from recent top. But overall up by 68 points from bottom of October 2022 with CAGR of 21%

• HSI: RSI 51 RSI-MA 51; down by 19 points from recent top. But up by 35 points from bottom (Oct,2022, 12-13% CAGR)

• NIFTY: RSI 55 RSI-MA 70; down by 14 points from recent top; But up by 46 points from June 2022 bottom, with CAGR OF 15%

- Both NDX and NIFTY have not come down significantly from resent overbought conditions, unlikely to go up significantly from this levels. Let the RSI-MA come down to 60. We are not sure about HSI directions.

-Decision to buy oil may need some rethink. Oil is a cartel and is difficult. A supply side shock is needed for the oil to raise. It could remain a long term pain in the portfolio.

9 April 2025 - Oil is going down below 60$, NMDC went down 0.5 points, bought some more.

- USA imposed 104% tariff on China. China retaliated with a 84% tariff on USA. US treasury and bond are seeing some sell off. EU retaliated with 24% tariff on USA. Surprisingly, overall impact on India equities is so far underwhelming.

10 April 2025 - Trump, as expected is interesting. He reduced tariff to 10% for all countries, except China. Chinese tariff is right now 125%!!

NDX shot up 12 points. Indian markets remain closed today.

Interest rates generally peak before market meltdowns and they are lagging indicators. **Central govts always start reducing interest rates in response to slowdown not to prevent it. **RBI cut interest rates twice by 25bp this year. We have a low growth low inflation environment in India now. Market returns are likely to be sideways for some more time before

• inflation or growth starts spiking again or

• the market is fully deflated.

This is relatively true for USA also. Lets wait.

Deliberating on whether to sell the accumulated NIFTYBEES if the market temporally spikes in between or not.

11 April 2025 - Now White-house says that the China tariff is 145%!! NDX is down 4-5 points, NIFTY up 2 points. Gold is forming new tops every day.

- China retaliated with increase in tariff to 125% from 84%. China is also actively reaching out to Vietnam, Malaysia, Spain, SA, Saudi Arabia and India. It is talking with EU to reduce EV tariff.

14 April 2025 -* India’s 10-year bond yield is at a 52-week low, suggesting that bond prices may have peaked*. Coupled with the possibility of low economic growth due to tariffs, this could lead to a further downward movement in stocks. Although more rate cuts are expected, they may take time to translate into market action and, therefore, may not be sufficient to prevent a decline in equities.

- Would it be prudent to sell the NIFTY holdings accumulated over the past two years during intermittent rallies, and re-enter gradually over the next 1–2 years?

15 April 2025 - US TLT iShares ETF is currently priced at $87, which is relatively low. In fact, it has not fallen below this level since 2003 (but have tested this level multiple times). Meanwhile, India’s 10-year government bond is near its peak price level. In US, people are holding cash; in India they are holding bond, it seems. I’m not entirely sure how to interpret this.

- Historically, bonds tend to peak before stocks, and both decline gradually during a downward business cycle, typically bottoming around the same time.

- The US may be in the middle of a downward cycle, while India may be at the beginning of one.

16 April 2025 - Average years to maturity of LIC g-sec NPS II is ~20 years. a 25 basis point cut will increase the NAV by approximately 5%. Inflation is at 5 year low of 3.34% as per latest government figures. We can expect some more rate cuts this year (100 bp?). This will bring down the repo rate to 5.25 from the high point of 6.5 starting from 2022. We can expect g-sec to give good returns this year.

- NIFTY should go down to good levels by the time the rate cut is over!!

17 April 2025 - The main driving forces in the market are greed and fear. However, certain minor belief systems among market participants can also influence market direction—at least temporarily. One such intriguing belief is Fibonacci retracement, which uses key levels like 23.6%, 38.2%, or 61.8%.

- Interestingly, in the previous uptrend that started in June ’22 (at 15,100) and peaked at 26,200, the NIFTY retraced 38.2% (to 21,950) by April 7, slightly overshooting to 21,750. It then quickly rebounded to the 23.6% level (23,580), again overshooting slightly and now hovering around 23,700.

- According to this belief system, if the previous swing high (23,850) is breached, new highs can be expected. If not, deeper retracements—such as 61.8%—may occur.

22 April 2025 - Last 8 trading days, NIFTY rallied 10 points. Interesting to see where it is going at a time when US is going down.

- Got rid of OILIETF, which I started disbelieving in.

24 April 2025 - Yesterday there was a terrorist attack in Kasmir, 26 innocents were killed. India withdrew from Indus water treaty with pakistan. Market remained neutral. Later today pakistan suspended Simla agreement and closed their airspace.

26 April 2025 bought more NMDC following a 5 p fall yesterday. Also added some NIFTYBEES

29 April 2025 exited from all NIFTY, planning to build the position afresh. Started SIP in NASDAQ and NIFTY.

3 May 2025 - From the levels of Feb 27, gold prices went up by >18 points and fell sharply by 10 points from that level. Market forming shooting star below the hang man. So people may be working for a reversal.

- 5.7039 7|2.9463 7

6 May 2025 Market formed a bearish engulfing pattern

**7 May 2025 **- India attacked pakistan today at 1.44am.

- India-UK trade agreement signed. Looks like market cancelled these too and is remaining flat.

**8 May 2025 **- Bad day

- India pakistan tensions quickly escalating. While we are in a dog fight, England and USA announced a FTA. Bond yield IN10Y shot up around 1 point. NIFTY was holding relatively steady. Media is celebrating…I don’t want to see this.

10 May 2025 - So relieved, the dog fight ends quickly.

14 May 2025 - Bond yield increased by 1-2 points last two days after a short panic during the dog fight. NMDC moving up. Plan to buy during dips. Expect a 8-10% dividend yield for a price between 60-64.

21 May 2025 - NIFTY remains volatile and no major move is happening in either direction after rallying 10-13 points. Liquidity has increased in the system. Banks have started cutting deposit rates. But NIFTY is not that cheap right now.

- Expecting bond yields to go down further.

26 May 2025 - From the low point of 21-22000 level in April, market has moved up by around 15 points and is showing no signs of falling despite numerous negativity.

31 May 2025 - GDP growth last quarter beat expectations. G-sec yields increased by 50bp. But considering the possible rate cuts, expect some more downside.

12 June 2025 - After the rate cut of 50bp and 100bp reduction in reserve ratio, g-sec went up 180 bp. This was surprising to me, as I was expecting the opposite.

- My g-sec holding went down around 100 bps

- Nifty mean while, after a rally of around 15 points from the bottom of 21750 on April 7, is hovering around 25000. Today after a drop of 1 point, bought some NIFTYBEES. Buy small amounts on every dip appears to be a respectable strategy, as the equity exposure is too low right now.

14 June 2025 - Israel and Iran started a dog fight which may escalate. P bought some more NIFTYBEES, as it again went down yesterday.

15 June 2025 - The fight is escalating and oil seems likely climbing up

24 June 2025 - Was an eventful week with US bombing Iran on 22.6.25 targeting alleged nuclear enrichment/ storage sites with B2 bombers and then quickly things go spiritual down. Markets seem cheerful.

- After a short phase of sell off, IN10Y dropped nearly 100bp.

26 June 2025 - Market moving up. Why did RBI stimulate already strong economy?

27 June 2025 - From the low point of April 7 market has moved up nearly 15 points. Today also market is up. I am waiting for the RSI to move up significantly to prime a good sized fall. If that is not happening, hoping for the call options to pay for missing the rally.

15 July 2025 - Nothing much happened in last three weeks in NIFTY and NDX

• g-sec return remains stalled

• Market was sideways at the best

• Everyone seem to wait for TACO to settle down

• ITBEES are down 14-15 points these days. bought some

• HSI had a >30% return this year

26 July 2025 - India England free trade agreement signed.

- If we see what FII has done since the end of February, we will get to see a picture. They bought slightly over 20K cr in cash market from Feb to June, slowly jacking up the market and suddenly dumped 30k cr in July.

- India US trade deal not yet finalised.

29 July 2025 - Trump tariff on India remains uncertain. If we take top 5 economies, India is the only country that remains very blind about what is coming. IT sector is getting a beating, may be, partly due to this and partly due to AI shock. I expect some winners to arise though.

- Bond yield is going up and June - July was the period last year where bond yields were sideways or up.

- Markets going down on monthly basis.

31 July 2025 - Yellow haired bag of potatoes announced 25 percent tariffs + penalty? for India. Market mildly bearish.

- West seem to be aligning themselves against the emerging world.

- Sold MON100 and bought NIFTYBEES and ITBEES.

2 August 2025 - Markets went down globally roughly to around 1-2 points following trade war between USA and the rest of the world (barring some weak countries and subservient europe).

- Along with this and creative disruptions due to AI, we may witness some change in world economic order.

- IT is going down, and I am accumulating.

7 July 2025 - Yellow haired bag of potatoes announced 50 percent tariffs on India.

**26 August 2025 **- Tariffs of 50% by yellow haired bag of potatoes will kick in tomorrow. I trimmed the equity exposure to only ITBEES. Total exposure now stands at historic low of 7-8 %. In case of a sudden and rapid move in either direction, options is expected to give some return.

26 Sept 2025 - More tariffs and more uncertainty. They want India to buy their oil and open up for their agricultural products. IT going down. Accumulating. Started SIP in arbitrage funds.

17 Oct 2025 - Tariff war is still raging. No one in the market seems to care. But without many people noticing gold and silver have reached unbelievable levels. Gold has in fact doubled in price in 2 years. RSI is above 90. Something should happen, but when?

18 Nov 2025 - No fresh news. I bought December 2026 put options.

6 Dec 2025 - IT is inching up and Energy going down

- Putin visited India 4-5 December. Interesting to see that India is third and Russia 4th largest economy in PPP. Only anomaly is the USA, still clinging to 2nd spot behind China and fast catching up Asia.

- RBI cut rates by 25bp

- Governor is telling that this is a goldilocks situation for India with moderate sustainable growth and low inflation.

10 Dec 2025 - 10 year g-sec yield is showing quick spikes despite rate cuts. Is it a sign of weak future?

14 Dec 2025 - 6.30 7|3.123 7

18 Dec 2025 - Energy is down and IT is slowly inching up in line with rupee fall. Bought some energy.

23 Dec 2025 - Bought reality and energy index apart from IT. Now equity is around 18% of portfolio

- India opening up more with more and more FTAs with developed economies.