The Circular Logic of Monetary Policy

How an expandable unit of account creates the problems it claims to solve
The Circular Logic of Monetary Policy

Modern monetary policy is built on a claim that is rarely questioned. The idea is that economic stability requires an adjustable money supply. Inflation must be controlled, crises must be mitigated and employment must be stabilized through active management of money. What is almost never examined is whether these problems exist independently of the monetary system or whether they are produced by the system itself.

Prices are a form of measurement. A price expresses how many units of money are required to obtain a good or service. For prices to be meaningfully comparable over time, the unit used to measure them must be based on a fixed reference. This is not an economic opinion. It is a logical requirement shared by all systems of measurement. Any scale only works if its reference remains fixed.

In the current fiat system, the monetary unit keeps its name and nominal identity, but the total quantity of units is continuously expanded by governments and banks. This means the reference used to measure prices is not stable. The scale itself is altered while the system continues to treat it as unchanged. From a logical and mathematical standpoint, this makes intertemporal price comparisons inconsistent.

This can be expressed formally in simple terms. Let M represent the total quantity of money and Y represent real economic output. The general level of prices P is proportional to the ratio between these two quantities. When the money supply expands faster than real output, prices rise. This is not the result of speculation, greed or market failure. It is the direct consequence of changing the denominator of the measurement scale. If the denominator of the scale were fixed, the natural outcome would be falling prices.

Monetary policy is presented as the solution to inflation and economic instability. Yet inflation and instability arise precisely because the monetary unit is expandable. The same mechanism that distorts price signals and generates cycles is then used to justify further intervention. This creates a closed logical loop. The policy claims necessity by responding to problems it systematically creates.

Under a monetary system where the money supply is fixed, the structure changes completely. If the total quantity of money cannot be increased and productivity continues to improve over time, prices naturally fall. This deflation is not a sign of economic weakness. It reflects real gains in efficiency. Each unit of money represents a larger share of total production. Purchasing power rises as a mathematical consequence of progress.

In such a system, saving becomes structurally viable. Wealth preservation no longer depends on financial risk taking or constant reinvestment to escape dilution. Holding money preserves value by default. This lowers time preference because future purchasing power is not systematically eroded. Consumption patterns adjust accordingly. Demand does not disappear. It becomes less urgent and more selective. Quality replaces speed as the dominant signal.

The effects extend to labor and retirement. When money reliably stores the value of work, individuals can accumulate sufficient purchasing power over fewer working years. Retirement becomes a function of saved productivity rather than perpetual income dependence. Employment pressure decreases not because jobs vanish, but because work no longer needs to compensate for continuous monetary decay.

The prevailing narrative treats monetary manipulation as a necessary stabilizing force. In reality, it operates within a circular framework. An unstable unit of account creates inflation, cycles and uncertainty. These effects are then used to justify continued manipulation of the same unit. Once the monetary scale itself is corrected and made fixed, many of the problems attributed to markets lose their structural cause.

A sound monetary system provides a stable reference that allows the economy to coordinate itself. Without a fixed scale, no amount of policy can produce consistent measurement. With a fixed scale, much of what policy attempts to fix resolves naturally.

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Highlights (1)

This can be expressed formally in simple terms. Let M represent the total quantity of money and Y represent real economic output. The general level of prices P is proportional to the ratio between these two quantities. When the money supply expands faster than real output, prices rise. This is not the result of speculation, greed or market failure. It is the direct consequence of changing the denominator of the measurement scale. If the denominator of the scale were fixed, the natural outcome would be falling prices.

Monetary policy is presented as the solution to inflation and economic instability. Yet inflation and instability arise precisely because the monetary unit is expandable. The same mechanism that distorts price signals and generates cycles is then used to justify further intervention. This creates a closed logical loop. The policy claims necessity by responding to problems it systematically creates.

Monetary policy is presented as the solution to inflation and economic instability. Yet inflation and instability arise precisely because the monetary unit is expandable. The same mechanism that distorts price signals and generates cycles is then used to justify further intervention. This creates a closed logical loop. The policy claims necessity by responding to problems it systematically creates.