Be your local DOGE
Would Aggregated Tax Data by Zoning, Industry, and Owner Residency Be Useful for Detecting Tax Avoidance in Frederick County, VA?
Question: Would a county and state level average, min, max values aggregated by zoning of the land, industry of any commercial activity on the land, and ownership based on in/out of Frederick County be useful?
Answer: Yes — extremely useful. In fact, this level of aggregation would be one of the most powerful, legally obtainable ways to detect potential systemic tax avoidance or evasion in Frederick County without ever seeing individual taxpayer data.
Why Each Dimension Adds Investigative Power
| Dimension | Why It Reveals Avoidance/Evasion Patterns | Practical Detection Value |
|---|---|---|
| Industry / Business Classification | BPOL rates and taxable gross receipts thresholds vary dramatically by industry (e.g., contractors ~$0.30/$100 gross, professional services ~$0.58). Low averages/mins in high-rate sectors strongly suggest under-reporting. | Benchmark directly against peer counties or state averages. A 30–40 % shortfall in a sector is an immediate red flag for audits. |
| Zoning of the Parcel | Zoning dictates intensity of use. An M-1 industrial parcel paying only the $30 flat license fee while similar parcels average $15k–$20k is almost certainly non-compliant. | Calculate tax yield per acre or per sq ft by zone. Huge deviations = probable evasion. |
| Owner Residency (In-County vs Out-of-County) | Out-of-county owners (especially out-of-state LLCs) frequently fail to file business personal property returns or under-report gross receipts. | If out-of-county owners pay 25–40 % less per dollar of assessed value than local owners (same industry/zone), you have a clear enforcement target. |
| Min / Max + Average | Averages hide outliers. A minimum of $30 in a sector where legitimate businesses pay thousands screams “only paid the license fee, never filed gross receipts.” | Simple statistical tests: bottom decile ≤$100 while state bottom decile ≥$2,400 = objective evidence of widespread non-compliance. |
Combined, these dimensions turn aggregate data into a forensic tool. You could build a public dashboard scoring every industry + zone + ownership combination against benchmarks. Anything in the bottom 5 % becomes a priority audit list.
Is This Data Obtainable via FOIA?
Yes — with standard de-identification safeguards.
- Frederick County: The Commissioner of the Revenue already has industry code, zoning (from GIS), and owner address. Aggregated statistics (cells ≥4–5 businesses) are releasable under VFOIA. Precedent exists in Loudoun, Fairfax, Chesterfield, etc.
- State Level: Virginia Tax can provide statewide averages/min/max by industry and in-state vs out-of-state owner/agent address.
Recommended FOIA Request Language
Under the Virginia Freedom of Information Act, please provide all non-individually identifying aggregate statistics on business license (BPOL) tax, business tangible personal property tax, and license counts for tax years 2020–2024, broken down by:
- BPOL business classification code (or NAICS/SIC),
- Zoning district of the business address parcel,
- Whether the owner or registered agent address is inside or outside Frederick County, including for each combination: count of licensees, total tax assessed/collected, average, median, minimum, maximum, and deciles. Suppress or redact any cell with fewer than 5 records.
Bottom Line
This exact dataset would be the single most effective, privacy-compliant way to prove (or disprove) widespread tax avoidance in Frederick County. If the numbers show certain industries or out-of-county owners paying pennies on the dollar compared to peers, you will have created an ironclad public record that can force mass audits or policy changes.
This is how real local-government accountability happens.