• 🧠Quote(s) of the week:
• 🧡Bitcoin news🧡
• 💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
• 🏦Banks:
• 🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
• 🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift:

§🧠Quote(s) of the week:

‘One ounce of silver just hit a new all-time high of $79. It can now buy 1.4 barrels of oil ($56/barrel). 1.4 barrels of oil are equivalent to 2,380 kWh of energy. Roughly the annual electricity use of one and a half small apartments in a developing country. Aka the energy equivalent of 5.6 years of continuous human labor. Hard money is stored energy.’

Got Bitcoin?

‘Boomer: “Bitcoin is fake internet money with no intrinsic value!” Also, Boomer: Owns a house that went from $30k to $500k by doing absolutely nothing. “That’s different, houses are real!“ The house didn’t change. Your money changed. But yeah, Bitcoin is the scam.’ - Daniel Hershberger

§🧡Bitcoin news🧡

Photos hosted by Azzamo (https://azzamo.net/)

On the 18th of December: ➡️Bitcoin falls -$3,000 in 30 minutes as $140 million in levered long positions are liquidated in a matter of minutes. Liquidations are back, again.

➡️24% of Americans plan to gift Bitcoin this holiday season. Thanksgiving Bitcoin pitches might’ve worked this year.

➡️Bitcoin ETFs have bought 710,000 BTC since launch, outpacing new mining issuance 2:1.

➡️Bitcoin history is wild. The birth of the HODL meme and Michael Saylor’s now iconic Bitcoin FUD tweet both happened on this day, December 18, exactly 12 years ago.

On the 19th of December: ➡️US Senate confirms pro-Bitcoin and crypto Michael Selig as chairman of the CFTC

➡️Bitcoin is energy, as you have read above (Daniel Batten post). Documenting Bitcoin: ‘This video shows a portable Bitcoin mine plugged into an oil well in the North Dakota wilderness. It makes a profit by recycling methane gas that would otherwise be vented or flared, converting it into electricity for mining while reducing waste and harmful emissions.’ Video: https://x.com/DocumentingBTC/status/2001756893870465287

➡️This is why we buy Bitcoin: 100 $ € CHF in 2002 - now…

➡️Adam Back: pro-tip for quantum FUD promoters. Bitcoin does not use encryption. Get your basics right, or it’s a tell. I kinda lean to the following:

Adrian: ‘Sorry, but that’s the facts, and @adam3us is right to point out that if you don’t understand this rather simple distinction, you probably should not be talking about a QC cracking Bitcoin. TL/DR: A Quantum Computer wouldn’t “decrypt” a private key; it would use Shor’s Algorithm to calculate a private key from a public key.

The Basics: Encryption refers to the act of hiding information so only those with a key can read it. Bitcoin doesn’t do this. The blockchain is a public ledger, so anyone can see every transaction, every amount, and every address. Nothing is “encrypted”. Bitcoin previously relied solely on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) and upgraded to include Schnorr signatures with Taproot. Neither are encryption tools; they are authentication tools. Bitcoin uses SHA-256 (for hashing) to confirm that data hasn’t been tampered with. A hash is more like a data fingerprint, not encryption.’

On the 20th of December: ➡️Rajat Soni: The value of your labor/time is trending to 0 in terms of Bitcoin. Today, your annual salary might be 0.5-0.7 BTC. Eventually, you will be paid 0.01 BTC or less for a year of your time. Every 0.1 BTC you own will give you a decade or more of time freedom and financial freedom.

Yes, Bitcoin is time, and I get the point, but I don’t think labor will trend to zero. Productivity changes what kind of labor gets paid. Skills still create income. Focus less on income and more on exposure. Bitcoin protects savings.

➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF took in more money than GLD this year, even with BTC down YTD.

➡️Bitcoin News: Bitcoin miners are facing capitulation risks as revenue and difficulty diverge, with miner revenue down 11% since mid-October.

➡️Wicked: Look who’s leading the way in using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. And the rest of the world isn’t far behind. Gradually, then suddenly.

On the 22nd of December: ➡️Saylor stacks $2.19 BILLION cash to back dividend payments on preferred shares. Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $748 million and now holds $2.19 billion and ₿671,268.

➡️If you bought Bitcoin with your $1,400 stimulus check in 2020, you’d now have over $16,113. - Bitcoin Magazine

On the 24th of December: ➡️Bitcoin network hashrate every Christmas Eve: 2009: 9 MH/s 2010: 108 GH/s 2011: 8 TH/s 2012: 22 TH/s 2013: 9 PH/s 2014: 271 PH/s 2015: 709 PH/s 2016: 2.3 EH/s 2017: 14 EH/s 2018: 39 EH/s 2019: 99 EH/s 2020: 134 EH/s 2021: 177 EH/s 2022: 240 EH/s 2023: 521 EH/s 2024: 779 EH/s 2025: 1.1 ZH/s From 9 megahashes to 1.1 zettahashes. 122 trillion times more computational power is securing the network.’ - Javier Hermosa

➡️Quinten: Gold added $13 TRILLION in market cap. Silver added $1.7 TRILLION in market cap. If that capital flew into Bitcoin, it would be at $800,000. Still one of the biggest opportunities for long-term wealth

➡️Sminston With: If I were to show ONE chart to my family at dinner tonight (which I will), I would share this one. Use it to explain how if they start DCA’ing $100/week now, they can accumulate 0.1 BTC in 2.5 years. Then explain how if they wait 2 years to start, it will take them 5 years (7 years including wait time). Then explain how if they wait 5 years to start, it will take them 12 years (17 years including wait time). If they’re smart enough to understand the price is presently undervalued, they MAY find it reasonable to work towards that starting point NOW, and STACK HARD, STACK EARLY.

➡️Spot gold prices surge above $4,500/oz for the first time in history. Gold is now a $31.5 TRILLION asset, nearly 7 TIMES larger than Nvidia. Louis: ‘Gold is a hard asset that produces no cash flow, and yet it has 7x the market cap of Nvidia, the most profitable company on earth. The base case for Bitcoin is being digital gold. Gold is 15.75x larger than Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a lot of room to grow.’

Gold rallies first, then bitcoin rallies harder…right?

➡️Wicked: Working on the per 100,000 population version of the European map now. The Isle of Man is putting in work on a per capita basis…but that’s because they’ve only got an estimated population of 84,160.

➡️Satoshi Flipper: ‘If Bitcoin had been around for the last 75 years, those circles are all your bull market cycle tops. It doesn’t happen EXACTLY every 4 years and has nothing to do with a calendar period LMAO. Now look at the current cycle and how flat it is; it should be obvious if you have a pair of working eyes that we haven’t even started to form this bull market’s cycle top yet.’

The only thing I am going to say is that markets rhyme with liquidity and growth, not with dates. Yes, the halving plays a role in the past, but won’t be as important in the (nearby) future.

On the 26th of December: ➡️Bitcoin News: ‘If you’re a Bitcoiner, don’t get jealous of silver going parabolic. It’s a trade that’s nearly 50 years in the making. The lesson? No matter how hard they try, assets harder than fiat cannot be held down forever.’ Silver has had 3 generational bull runs in the last 140 years: 1979, 2011, and today. Good luck to everyone buying the top.

➡️Bitcoin News: ‘Bitcoin fair value vs. Gold: $169,000 When priced against gold’s long-term trend, BTC remains significantly undervalued. If risk appetite returns to the market, the upside potential is massive. The Gold-Inferred Power Law suggests the “fair” price is nearly 2x the current price.’

On the 27th of December: ➡️Simple Mining: ‘Hash rate down 4%. Weak miners are shutting off. That’s not a warning. That’s a signal. Historically, 90-day returns are positive 65% of the time after hash rate drops. Corporate treasuries just bought 42k BTC. Their largest accumulation since July. Weak miners leave. Strong miners stay. New miners enter. Difficulty adjusts. Competition thins. Block rewards remain.’

➡️The quote of the week is awesome, but how much energy backs the Bitcoin network, and roughly how much energy does that equate per coin?

The Bitcoin network’s annual energy consumption is approximately 204 TWh (equivalent to 204 billion kWh), based on the latest estimates. With ~19.96 million Bitcoins mined, this equates to roughly 10,200 kWh per coin per year. Alternatively, the energy to mine one new Bitcoin is about 1.2 million kWh. To put it in perspective, that 1.2M kWh to mine one BTC equals about 3,300 years of human labor (at 1 kWh/day equivalent). Bitcoin as ultimate stored energy?

The 2025 / 2026 market is trying to tell you something. The question is, are you listening?

➡️Bitcoin Archive: ‘14 of the top 25 U.S. banks are building Bitcoin products. Bitcoin isn’t being institutionalized. Institutions are being Bitcoinized.’

Anyway, sometimes you need to remember to zoom out. You have been in this asset for a decade. Or for the next decade. Once you zoom out to a decade, day-to-day volatility stops being information and starts being a distraction. You are betting on the fact that this is digital gold, a pristine monetary asset. You own 1 Bitcoin; you own 1 /21 Millionth of everything. Everything else is noise. Everything else is just short-term emotion trying to rent space in a long-term decision.

I buy Bitcoin and do nothing. No charts, no earnings calls, no timing anything, no nothing… I use all the time I used to waste on research and managing a portfolio to spend with my new daughter, wife, my friends, and many hobbies. Bitcoin gave me a simple life.

➡️Adam Livingston: Bitcoin vs. Silver vs. Gold since January 1st, 2015: Silver: 405% Gold: 283% Bitcoin: 27,701% Even ignoring the first 6 years of Bitcoin’s existence for the crybabies who whine about the timeframe comparison… …gold and silver drastically underperform the APEX ASSET. BITCOIN IS INEVITABLE.

Now I do know it’s a bit of cherry picking…So let’s pick a different starting date, say 2020, and see how that works out.

Bitcoin massively outperformed shiny rocks by orders of magnitude. Gold and silver are infinitely abundant. Bitcoin is fixed. Long-term, that’s all that matters.

➡️Lugano, Switzerland, has emerged as a rare example of citywide Bitcoin adoption, where crypto is used for everything from buying coffee at McDonald’s to paying taxes, parking fines, and tuition. Through its Plan ₿ initiative, launched in 2022, residents and merchants can pay with Bitcoin or USDT via simple QR codes, attracted by Lightning Network fees often below 1%.’ - Bitcoin News.

I truly hope, as I am part of the group Zwolle Bitcoinstad, we can achieve the same here in the Netherlands, Zwolle.

On the 28th of December: ➡️MicroSeed.io: ‘When it comes to securing your Bitcoin seed phrase, never say never. Complacency loses a lot more Bitcoin than hacks. Don’t trust, verify, including your process for recovery! Regular check-ups, just like the dentist!’

§💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

Just want to start this segment with the following: 👉🏽Nancy Pelosi absolutely DESTROYED Warren Buffett in the stock market since 2012. This is insanity.

Nancy Pelosi’s net worth before Congress: $785,000 Nancy Pelosi’s net worth after Congress: $133,000,000 She beat the market by 17,000%. She should be in prison, and please ask yourself…why is there no accountability for this, as this is statistically impossible unless you are receiving insider info.

On the 22nd of December: 👉🏽‘The stock market’s run has been historic: US households now own more equities than real estate as a percentage of their net worth, the 3rd such occurrence over the last 65 years. This comes as corporate equities and mutual funds rose to ~31% of net worth in Q2 2025, an all-time high. This percentage has more than doubled since 2008. By comparison, the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak was ~25%. Meanwhile, real estate assets fell below 30% of total net worth in Q2 for the first time since 2021. This is far below the 2006 peak of 38% recorded before the housing bubble burst. Asset owners are winning.’ - TKL

👉🏽‘THE S&P 500 OFFICIALLY HITS A NEW RECORD HIGH. That’s +$18 trillion in market cap since the April 2025 bottom. Asset owners are winning.’ - TKL

On the 25th of November: 👉🏽ZeroHedge: In the greatest century for technological advancement in the history of humanity, the world’s best-performing stock market has been outperformed by a mineral…. three-fold.

On the 27th of December: 👉🏽TKL: ‘The size of the US stock market is at historic levels: Total US public equity market capitalization is now up to a record $72 TRILLION. This is now more than 3.5 TIMES the size of developed Europe’s market and over 3.5 TIMES China and Hong Kong combined. It is also larger than the combined market value of Europe, China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, France, and the UK. This comes as the Nasdaq’s market cap has more than doubled since 2022, to a record ~$38 trillion. At the same time, the NYSE’s market value has surged by +$10 trillion, to ~$32 trillion. The US is dominating global markets.’

§🏦Banks:

On the 27th of November: 👉🏽TKL: ‘Global central banks are pivoting: Over 90% of developed and emerging central banks have cut rates or kept them the same over the last 6 months, near the highest since the 2020 pandemic. In other words, less than 10% of world central banks have recently hiked their rates. This percentage has persisted above 90% for 12 months. Such an elevated reading has been seen only a few times over the last 35 years. Over the last 2 years, global central banks have cut rates 316 times, the highest reading in at least 25 years. To put this into perspective, there were 313 cumulative cuts in 2008-2010 in response to the financial crisis. Global monetary policy is easing.’

👉🏽Global central banks’ gold purchases jumped +10% YoY in Q3 2025, to 220 tonnes. This also marks a +28% quarterly increase, putting it 6% above the 5-year quarterly average. So far in 2025, central banks have added +634 tonnes of gold to their reserves. Kazakhstan led global purchases last quarter, while Brazil added gold for the first time since 2021. World central banks are still pulling into gold.’ -TKL

§🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

RAY DALIO WARNS: “It’s not a recession which is going to hit the US & the World but a total breakdown of the Monetary System.”

👉🏽Stack Hodler: Japan just raised rates to strengthen the Yen. The Japanese 10-year yield just broke over 2%, but the Yen is plunging vs. the dollar. In case you’re wondering why gold and Bitcoin are up so massively over the past 5 years, it’s because the drivers of the fiat clown car are drunk, blind, and careening out of control. The Emperor is stark naked.

👉🏽Hans Mahncke: If it is true that Biden told Zelensky that Ukraine would not be admitted to NATO, as Zelensky now acknowledges, then what was the purpose of Biden and his entire team publicly insisting that NATO’s doors were wide open, other than to provoke Russia?

👉🏽TKL: ‘November CPI inflation unexpectedly FALLS to 2.7%, below expectations of 3.1%. Core CPI inflation FALLS to 2.6%, below expectations of 3.0%. This marks the biggest drop in US inflation since March 2025. Inflation was WELL below expectations in November.’

👉🏽Netherlands pouring money into Ukraine.

When EU debt is divided across its citizens, the figure comes out at roughly €35,000 per person. Some member states can carry that burden. Others clearly cannot. The data is unambiguous. Despite being one of the smaller EU countries, the Netherlands continues to rank among the largest contributors in absolute financial support to Ukraine — measured not in intentions or percentages, but in billions of euros. And those funds do not come from “Brussels” or some abstract European pool. They come directly from Dutch taxpayers.

While larger countries spread their commitments over time, attach conditions, or slow their payments, the Netherlands continues to transfer funds at full speed — often without clear limits, timelines, or exit strategies. The costs, however, are not abstract. They show up in higher taxes, reduced fiscal space for healthcare, housing, and infrastructure, declining purchasing power, and rising public debt. This happens at a moment when the housing market is stalled, healthcare is under pressure, energy and food prices remain elevated, and younger generations face diminishing prospects. Yet the financial outflows continue — rapidly and with limited public debate. International solidarity matters. But solidarity without limits, without transparency, and without accountability eventually becomes something else entirely. In the end, the bill always lands in the same place. And that place is the wallet of the Dutch citizen.

Per-capita financial contributions: Netherlands: ± €561 per resident Germany: ± €291 per resident United Kingdom: ± €280 per resident Switzerland: ± €124 per resident France: ± €115 per resident Spain: ± €30 per resident In absolute terms: 🇫🇷 France: €7.5 billion 🇳🇱 Netherlands: €10 billion For context: France’s economy is roughly 2.5 times larger than that of the Netherlands. Germany’s economy is about 4 times larger.

With €10.5 billion, the Dutch government could, for example: Finance housing construction for more than 10 years (€1 billion per year for 100,000 homes). Reverse planned cuts to education and research (approx. €1 billion). Strengthen policing and crime prevention for decades (€230–350 million annually). Fund the digitalisation of healthcare for over 60 years (€162 million per year). Based on the Dutch National Budget 2025.

We, as the Dutch, still wait for the 1,000 euros per resident payment for the Greeks - the EU debt crisis.

Now, other graphs even show us a much worse figure:

Based on €740 per resident, with 18.13 million inhabitants (CBS, December 2025) and 9.85 million employed people (November 2025), this amounts to approximately €1,362 per working Dutch citizen. This puts the imbalance into sharp focus: the financial burden is not evenly shared, but disproportionately carried by a relatively small group of taxpayers. It is, quite literally, a snapshot of the EU’s internal divide — the division within the European Union made visible.

Anyway, the EU is now fully funding Ukraine. Without this funding, the hryvnia would collapse, and Ukraine would descend into hyperinflation. The EU is stuck providing funding now. Either they fund it forever, or at some point, they allow the collapse. This might end up collapsing the EU.

👉🏽Japan’s economic shift in one image (1995 vs 2025)

Anyway, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25bps to 0.75%. HIGHEST in 30 years. Bitcoin dumped the last 3 times the BoJ hiked interest rates: March 2024 → -27% July 2024 → -30% January 2025 → -30%

👉🏽TKL: The US is innovating at an unprecedented rate: There are 62 technology companies in the US reporting net annual profit above $1 billion, by far the most of any country. This is over 4 times more than in the world’s 2nd-largest economy, China, which has 15 such tech firms. In the US, there are 21 more global tech firms than in China, Japan, Taiwan, and the Eurozone combined. Among the world’s 10 largest companies, 8 are US technology firms. Meanwhile, among the top 10 most innovative companies, 8 are based in the US. US tech dominance is an understatement.

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: ‘Next time you hear someone advocating for higher taxes by saying that “the rich need to pay their fair share,” please show them this chart. The top 1% of earners already pay 40% of taxes. In which parallel mental universe do these people live?’

👉🏽Billionaire investor Ron Baron explains the silent math destroying your wealth. Your money loses 4 to 5% of its purchasing power every single year. The economy grows at roughly 2%. That is a relentless 7% headwind against you, annually. What does that really mean? Prices double every 10 to 12 years. Your savings are cut in half in real terms within about 15 years. Cash sitting idle is not safe; it is decaying. The system is structurally engineered to punish savers and force capital into risk just to survive.

👉🏽TKL: Own assets or be left behind: The wealthiest US households, with net worth above $1 billion, hold ~37% of their wealth in stocks, followed by ~35% in business interests. Those with $100 million to $1 billion hold ~58% in businesses and ~10% in equities. By comparison, households with net worth under $10,000 hold ~36% of their assets in their primary residence, followed by ~34% in vehicles. The $10,000 to $100,000 group holds ~56% of their wealth in their homes and ~10% in vehicles. Overall, Americans with a net worth of under $1 million have almost zero exposure to equities. The wealth divide is widening.

👉🏽China is dominating the worldwide race for power: China now has a record 3.75 terawatts of power generation capacity. That capacity has doubled over the last 8 years. This is nearly 3 TIMES more than the US, which has ~1.30 terawatts of capacity. Furthermore, China has 34 nuclear reactors under construction, more than the next 9 countries combined. Nearly 200 other reactors are planned or proposed. At the same time, there are currently no large commercial nuclear reactors under construction in the US. The US must act now to keep up with China. - TKL

On the 20th of December: 👉🏽‘Argentina’s economy when Javier Milei became president vs. today: GDP growth: from -1.6% to +5.2% Inflation: from 211% to 31% Poverty rate: from 42% to 32% Sorry comrades “economists”, free market works, and it works fast.’ - Michael A. Arouet

Critics claimed austerity measures would make things worse, but data show otherwise. Milei has proven that free-market policies can deliver rapid social gains. As Argentina emerges from decades of economic turmoil, this milestone underscores President Milei’s vision for a prosperous, self-reliant nation.

Socialism = the alchemy that turns promise into poverty and credit into chains. Capitalism = the engine that turns effort into escape from both poverty and debt.

EU, are you listening? Reduce government spending and regulations, por favor!

👉🏽Japanese inflation is now above US inflation for the first time since 1979. The end of the “Japanese Keynesian miracle”.

On the 21st of December: 👉🏽Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fell -$5.8 billion in October, to $9.2 trillion, but remain at the 2nd-highest level on record. China’s holdings, the 3rd-largest holder, declined -$11.8 billion, to $688.7 billion, the lowest since 2008. However, Belgium’s stockpile, which includes Chinese custodial accounts, rose by +$1.6 billion, to a record $468.4 billion. Japan, the largest foreign holder of Treasuries, posted a +$10.7 billion increase, to $1.2 trillion, the highest since July 2022. The UK, the 2nd-biggest owner, saw a +$13.2 billion surge, to $877.9 billion, the 3rd-highest on record. Meanwhile, Canadian holdings dropped -$56.7 billion, to $419.1 billion, the lowest since July. Demand for US Treasuries remains strong overall.

👉🏽French budget deal collapses; deficit risks widening further. Public debt is now at 117.4% of GDP. A French budget agreement has failed, forcing the government to roll over the 2025 budget into 2026 via emergency legislation. The ongoing political deadlock is blocking reforms of public finances, while France’s already high public debt continues to rise. It remains unclear how Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu intends to resolve the situation.

If this emergency law remains in force for the entire year, France’s budget deficit could rise to 5.7% in 2026, warns Charlotte de Montpellier, an analyst at ING specializing in the French economy. That would be well above the 4.6% deficit the government had pledged to deliver. For 2025, the deficit is already expected to reach 5.4%. Implication for the eurozone: With fiscal discipline deteriorating further, this strengthens concerns that Eurobonds would effectively mutualize structural deficits rather than support reform, shifting long-term risks onto more disciplined member states.

Source: FD - https://t.co/2R2U2tbjAb

👉🏽‘Global money supply is out of control: Global money supply is now up to a record $45 trillion. This comes as China’s M1 money supply has risen to $16.5 trillion, an all-time high. China has driven the majority of global money supply growth this year. China is currently the largest producer of narrow money in the world, accounting for ~37% of the total. Meanwhile, the US M1 money supply, excluding savings deposits, is up to a record $8 trillion, representing ~18% of the world’s total. Global liquidity is expanding.’ -TKL

👉🏽Gold reaches new ATH of $4,383. Silver Heads for 8th Straight Monthly Gain, Matching 1980 Record Run. Platinum at its highest price in 17 years

👉🏽TKL: The US consumer sentiment assessment of current economic conditions has declined to 50.4 points, the lowest level on record. This is 5 points and 8 points below the lows seen in 2022 and 2008. By comparison, the index stood 11 points higher in 1980, when annual inflation was at 13.5%. This comes as America’s perception of current buying conditions for big-ticket items deteriorated to the lowest level on record. An ongoing affordability crisis and a weakening labor market continue to weigh on household finances, dragging consumer sentiment lower. Consumers have rarely been this pessimistic about the economy.

👉🏽Federal Reserve scheduled to inject $6.8 billion into the market tomorrow at 9:00 AM EST.

👉🏽Central banks rush for gold is absolutely HISTORIC: World central banks have bought a whopping 9,500 tonnes of gold over the last 15 years, according to Money Metals analysis. This is roughly 3,500 tonnes more than officially reported. Since 2022, buying has accelerated, driven mainly by China, Poland, and Kazakhstan. Non-Western central banks cannot get enough gold.

James Lavish: ‘The ‘flight to safety’ of gold and other metals can be the result of many different market or investor concerns, but the persistent large purchases of gold by central banks themselves are a dire signal: even they don’t trust the money.’

On the 22nd of October: 👉🏽Japan’s 10Y Government Bond Yield surges to a record 2.10%, now up +100 basis points in 2025. Just as you think Japan’s situation can’t get worse, it gets even worse.

👉🏽Silver hits new record high of $68 per ounce, is now up 135% this year.

On the 23rd of December: 👉🏽Germany demolished its most modern coal-fired plant

• only six years old
• €3 billion
• Produced 1650 MW Germany’s economy craters, starved for energy. China continues to build 2 new coal-fired plants every week. Industrial production & global influence move to China.

Insanity that defies words to describe it. Just to give you an example. Germany’s electricity prices are twice as high as France’s. Germany’s power mix: 33% wind, 14% solar, 40% fossil fuels France’s power mix:67% nuclear, 4% solar, 8% wind Germany should be treated as a case study for a failed energy transition. More on the above below.

On the 24th of December: 👉🏽’(S)pain is entering a fiscal crisis. Spending on politicians and civil servants already consumes sixty percent of tax receipts. Western, overregulated, low-growth economies are in decline. Spain, once a leading world power, has now plunged into irrelevance.’ - Lukas Ekwueme

Sinking 60% of revenue into bureaucracy is a death spiral. But is it really 60%? The claim from the Vozpopuli headline suggests 60% of Spain’s tax revenue goes to civil servants’ and politicians’ salaries, but OECD and Eurostat data indicate public sector compensation is around 25-30% of tax revenue (approx. €150-180B out of €600B in 2025 estimates). It may use a narrow definition of “tax receipts.” The article claims public sector salaries consume 60% of tax revenue, not 60% of government spending. Per the article, it’s 25% of total spending. Verifying with official data: personnel costs ~€183B in 2025, total tax revenue (incl. social contrib.) ~€580B (31%), or fiscal taxes only ~€400B (46%). The 60% figure appears inflated or based on specific inclusions. For the Netherlands, it’s similar at ~28% (€120B out of €420B). Spain faces fiscal challenges with a 2.6% GDP deficit projected for 2025, higher than the Netherlands’ 1.9%, but neither is in crisis.

👉🏽Share of global GDP: 1990: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK combined: 37%
United States: 26% 2025: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK combined: 16% United States: 26%

The European Union has become an economic disaster of regulations and stagnation. 2016 : EU GDP: $16.4 trillion US GDP: $18.8 trillion 2024 : EU GDP: $19.4 trillion US GDP: $29.2 trillion The EU has 100 million more people. 450 million to 350 million

The poorest US state, Mississippi, has a higher GDP per capita than France or Italy.

The EU has turned Europe into an over-regulated wasteland devoid of growth. Crippling regulation, punitive taxes, ideological climate policies, and hostility toward free markets have suffocated growth and driven capital elsewhere. Europe lectures the world on values while importing energy, outsourcing innovation, and regulating itself into irrelevance. To rebuild anything, infrastructure, industry, competitiveness, Europe would need to deregulate, cut taxes, abandon climate absolutism, and embrace real market economics. These are reforms Europe refuses to make, even as its decline accelerates. The tragedy is not that Europe cannot compete; it is that it chooses not to. Extremely important to understand the world is shifting, everyone else is catching up, and Western Europe is losing its competitive advantage faster than you think…

👉🏽Spot gold prices surge above $4,500/oz for the first time in history. Gold is now a $31.5 TRILLION asset, nearly 7 TIMES larger than Nvidia. Gold is a hard asset that produces no cash flow, and yet it has 7x the market cap of Nvidia, the most profitable company on earth. The base case for Bitcoin is being digital gold. Gold is 15.75x larger than Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a lot of room to grow.

‘Gold has added nearly $13 trillion to its market cap in a single year, which is insane. SILVER has just hit (72, up 148% in 2025, and is now the world’s 3rd largest asset. The US S&P 500 just gave its highest daily close in history, and is up 43% from the April 2025 crash lows. BITCOIN? It’s down -30% from its ATH in Oct, down -13% in 2025, and is about to close its worst Q4 in the last 7 years. While every other asset class is exploding and making historic highs for months, Bitcoin is barely holding support. There is no logical explanation for this. It’s just pure market manipulation by the big players.’

Gold does well in periods of instability with currencies. Currency instability happens when big cycles change. Gold is NOT a hedge against inflation…. Gold is the ultimate hedge against big cycle changes (disinflation to inflation (1929) or inflation to disinflation (1980). In reality, Gold is an even better asset during the disinflation to inflation transition (1929) than the inflation to disinflation transition (1980). Historically, it underperformed during high inflation periods like the 1970s (real returns negative adjusted for CPI), but surged in crises like 1929-1933 (after US dollar devaluation) and 1980 peak before disinflation. It often shines in uncertainty or monetary shifts, not steady inflation. So, partially agree—it’s more a hedge against systemic changes than inflation alone. The latter is more an outcome of bad governments that allow the circumstances that create inflation.

👉🏽Population Growth In 2024:

👉🏽‘The global working age population is shrinking: The percentage of people aged 15 to 64 in the world population is down -20 points since 1960, to 55%. Over this period, the sharpest decline was recorded in China, at -36 percentage points, to 44%. In the US, the working-age population proportion fell by -13 percentage points, to 54%. On the other hand, the European Union saw a +2 percentage point increase, to 57%. Overall, the number of countries where the working-age population is shrinking has increased by +48 since 1980, to 50. That number is estimated to increase to 77 by 2040. Demographics are set to be a major headwind for growth in developed global economies.’ -TKL

👉🏽Ursula von der Leyen: ‘Freedom of speech is the foundation of our strong and vibrant European democracy. We are proud of it. We will protect it. Because the @EU_Commission is the guardian of our values. We strongly condemn the U.S. decision to impose travel restrictions on five European individuals, including former Commissioner Thierry Breton.’ Link to full statement: https://link.europa.eu/NtMX4K

This post will be studied by historians for generations. I can’t believe this is not satire. If she really cares about free speech, then stop censoring, fining, and imprisoning people for speech offences. It is really that simple. I hate the hypocrisy. Free speech is not a slogan. The Digital Services Act is a censorship law. You cannot regulate speech into obedience and call it freedom. Oh, and on top of that. Democracy requires the consent of the governed. The European Commission is unelected. Nuff said!

Shira A, MD: ’Your outrage over U.S. entry bans is remarkable — not because of its moral force, but because of its selective memory. Since 2022, the EU has operated a sanctions and restrictive-measures regime that deliberately targets public figures, media-adjacent actors, and platforms when they are accused of “propaganda,” “disinformation,” or involvement in so-called “hybrid operations.” The consequences include travel bans, asset freezes, de-banking, platform blocking, and effective professional exclusion — often with limited transparency, politically charged justifications, and without immediate, comprehensive public disclosure of evidence.

This very practice has for years been the subject of intense debate regarding the limits of Article 11 of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights (freedom of expression and information), as well as the rule-of-law standards applicable to sanctions that can function as de facto political punishments.

That you now describe an identical measure — when applied by an allied partner — as a matter of “defending sovereignty” and “protecting freedom of speech” exposes a deeper structural problem: You are not defending principles. You are defending jurisdiction.’

Spot on! For example, last week, the EU sanctioned the Swiss intelligence analyst Colonel Jacques Baud for wrongthink. They froze the bank accounts of Jaques Baud, a Swiss citizen residing in Belgium, and banned every EU business from transacting with him, such that he can’t even buy bread or pay rent, and their own rationale is that the EU didn’t like what he was saying. They did this with no due process, no right of appeal, and no way to defend themselves from their slanderous and ruinous accusations. And he’s not the only one. This week, the EU allegedly stands for freedom of speech…ergo hypocrisy!

In my view, when countries or regions start to decline, they become more authoritarian. The EU is increasingly a soft-totalitarian megastate that punishes people for voicing disfavored ideas.

👉🏽‘Over the past five years, the typical mortgage payment has increased by 82%, while median incomes have grown by just 26%, according to a recent estimate from John Burns Research and Consulting.’ - Unusual Whales Google searches for “Help with Mortgage” are higher than during the 2008 financial crisis.

On the 25th of December: 👉🏽‘CPI inflation data quality has rarely been worse: In October, a record 40% of core CPI items were estimated, with 22 percentage points coming from rents and 18 points from other commodities and services. Under normal conditions, the BLS measures CPI inflation using ~90,000 monthly price observations spanning across 200 product and service categories. When price data is unavailable, the BLS fills the gaps with estimated values, which typically account for ~10% of all entries. Overall, 34% of all inflation components were estimated using other items or geographies. This marks the 5th consecutive reading above 30% and more than triple the average seen from 2022 to 2024. Confidence in economic data is eroding.’ -TKL

👉🏽You don’t need a PhD to see an iceberg. You just need eyes. The Federal Reserve employs over 400 PhD economists. They have the most sophisticated models in the history of finance. And yet, not a single one of them can produce this chart. Why? Because academic complexity is often a mask for blindness. They are so busy fine-tuning their “soft landing” simulations that they are missing the blunt force trauma staring them in the face. We are heading for a massive recession. The pilots are flying the plane, but they are looking at the wrong instruments.

Since 1913, the US) has lost 97%of its purchasing power. Over the next ten years, the buck will lose 75% of the remaining three %. That is the key problem.

👉🏽Lukas Ekwueme: ‘Inflation changes the game. At the height of the last inflationary cycle, the S&P looked very different: 1980: ~70% asset-heavy, 2025: ~50% asset-light. The 40-year disinflationary cycle massively benefited asset-light companies. Now, with a new inflationary cycle emerging, expect market weightings to shift from asset-light to asset-heavy.’

👉🏽Shanghai silver prices soar to a record $80/oz, now officially up over +150% YTD. China is facing a literal shortage of physical silver. Bitcoin News: Following a massive 10% surge (a rare 4-5 sigma event) Silver has reclaimed its dominance, becoming the world’s 3rd largest asset with a $4.47T market cap. The move is staggering: • Nov 11, 2024: Bitcoin flipped Silver at a $1.736T market cap. • Today: While BTC remains steady, Silver has exploded to nearly 3x that valuation. To put this “sigma” move in perspective: the statistical probability of being hit by lightning in your lifetime is roughly 3.8 sigma. This price action is significantly rarer. You are witnessing a true “black swan” in the financial markets.

On the 26th of December: 👉🏽‘What we are seeing in precious metals right now is truly once-in-a-lifetime: Gold is now up +72% YTD, adding +$13.2 TRILLION in market cap this year. Silver has become the 3rd largest asset in the world, up +155% YTD, worth $4.2 trillion. The only other year that comes close to what we are seeing now is 1979, when CPI inflation was running at 11%+. Platinum? Up +159% and set for its biggest annual percentage gain ever recorded. 2025 will be a year that is referenced for decades to come. You are witnessing history.’ -TKL

👉🏽TKL: Google now has a literal line item in their quarterly reports called “European Commission fines.” $10.5 BILLION as of September 30th. The EU has become so heavily regulated that fines are a “normal” line item now. What is happening in Europe?

The EU’s shift from innovation to litigation during the AI boom has become one of the most costly mistakes in history.

Now you will find some misinformation like this: ‘The EU has more revenue from fining American companies (€3.8B) than taxes collected from all publicly listed European tech companies combined (€3.2B).’ OR ‘In 2024, public EU tech companies paid just €3.2B in income tax. Meanwhile, the EU fined US tech companies €3.8B, which is MORE than the combined tax revenue from all public EU tech companies. And, if SAP just moved from Europe to the US, the EU would lose ~50% of this tax revenue. The EU is basically funding itself through fines on US tech.’

Not completely true: The €3.2B in income tax cited covers only select software/internet firms, not all public EU tech companies; major firms like Siemens (€2.32B), ASML (€1.68B), and SAP (€1.61B) paid more individually in 2024.

Still bad!

👉🏽The decline of the EU in one chart… death by taxation. Total employment costs for a €60k salary:

• France: €35k - Italy: €28k - Spain: €20k This is the employer side of the equation. On the employee side:
• Income taxes
• VAT on consumption
• And inheritance taxes when you die How can the EU succeed when it is suffocating its working class with taxes? - Lukas Ekwueme

👉🏽This isn’t Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, gold, or silver. It’s the U.S. national debt.

👉🏽The difference between the Median Home Price and Household Income has reached $343,000, the largest gap in history.

👉🏽On the 27th of December: Jack Prandelli: Who really drives oil demand? Just 2 countries burn 35% of the world’s crude. This map is the demand side of the oil market.

In a world with nearly 100M bpd of consumption, a handful of countries decide whether the market feels tight or oversupplied. The scoreboard (million bpd, share of global):
United States: 20.01M bpd (20%) China: 15.15M bpd (15%) India: 5.05M bpd (5%) Russia: 3.68M bpd (4%) Saudi Arabia: 3.65M bpd (4%) Japan: 3.38M bpd (3%) Brazil: 3.03M bpd (3%) S. Korea: 2.55M bpd (3%) Canada: 2.41M bpd (2%) Germany: 2.18M bpd (2%)

Basically, the global consumption: Top 2 - more than 1/3 (35%) Top 6 - more than 1/2 (51%) Top 10 - more than 3/5 (61%)

Now a way more important metric…Per capita:

• Saudi Arabia: ~39 barrels per person per year
• United States: ~21 barrels per person per year
• Japan: ~10 barrels per person per year
• Russia: ~9 barrels per person per year
• China: ~4 barrels per person per year
• India: ~1 barrel per person per year

On the 28th of December: 👉🏽China will be imposing export restrictions on silver beginning in 5 days, on January 1st. These restrictions will require special government licenses for silver exports. Shanghai silver prices are now up to $85/oz, a ~$5 premium to spot prices in the US.

👉🏽Ryan Berg: A good map of how Latin America is finishing 2025. The map will get bluer starting in early 2026. -The Times Reasons for the rightward shift? Security, lack of economic growth, migration, and, of course, the catastrophic failures of Chavismo, Castrismo, and Orteguismo.

Ryan’s map shows Latin America’s rightward political shift in 2025, with conservative leaders gaining in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador, amid security crises, economic stagnation, migration, and failures of leftist models like Venezuela’s Chavismo, Cuba’s Castrismo, and Nicaragua’s Orteguismo. More shifts expected in 2026. Foro de São Paulo: Founded in 1990 by Lula da Silva and Fidel Castro as a forum for left-wing parties/organizations in the Americas to promote integration and counter US influence. Key figures: Lula (Brazil), Castro (Cuba), Maduro (Venezuela), Petro (Colombia), Ortega (Nicaragua). As of late 2025: Influence waning due to scandals, corruption allegations, and regional rightward trends, per reports from GIS and others. One of the most underreported stories in Europe is the economic success of Javier Milei in 2025. It has certainly spread in the Latin American continent, given the poor economic performance of the predecessors.

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