• 🧠Quote(s) of the week:
• 🧡Bitcoin news🧡
• On the 16th of September:
• 💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
• 🏦Banks:
• 🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
• 🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift:

§🧠Quote(s) of the week:

“They will keep you endlessly distracted with social issues and politics. Turn your focus to learning about money and Bitcoin instead. Get off the hamster wheel. Save in Bitcoin for the next ten years for a lifetime of freedom, or squander savings for the next ten years for a lifetime of pain. Which way, modern man?” - James Lavish

Photos hosted by Azzamo (azzamo.net)

§🧡Bitcoin news🧡

Q4….

I believe strongly that we’re in for one heck of a ride in Q4 2025!

On the 15th of September:

➡️The U.S. dollar is down 10% this year. A tenth of its value in a year, yet people are calling Bitcoin volatile. Anyway, rate cuts will lower interest in USD even further. Historically bullish set up for Bitcoin.

➡️Bitcoin inflows in the last 1.5 years surpassed the first 15 years combined.

➡️Simply Bitcoin: French news says, “the currency is completely losing value and that the future is Bitcoin. So you might as well accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible.” “The interest of the United States of America is undoubtedly to devalue the dollar.”

§On the 16th of September:

➡️’A $120K investment in Bitcoin at a 29% CAGR, will grow to $25 Million in 21 years.’ - Trending Bitcoin

Of course, the CAGR will get lower and lower the higher the market cap of BTC gets. The CAGR won’t stay flat. Bitcoin won’t deliver exactly 30% a year; it will deliver much more in the coming years, and less as it matures. Could it be 29% a year? Maybe. Estimating Bitcoin’s future CAGR is speculative, but based on historical trends (around 60-70% over the last 10 years) and projections from ARK Invest, Michael Saylor (30%), and others (20-40%), I’d peg it at 25% for the next 21 years. From approximately $ 117,000 today, that projects to approximately $12.7 million by 2046. The more important question would be….Nobody has any idea what $25M or ~$12.7M will mean in 21 years. Anyway, that’s the power of compounding! Time to HODL and let it ride.

➡️’U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded the largest daily inflow since mid-July on September 10, with net inflows of 5,900 BTC’ - Bitcoin News

➡️42% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply could become illiquid by 2032 due to Bitcoin treasury accumulation. - Fidelity

➡️’Tether mints another 1B USDT. 3B USDT minted in the past 4 days.’ - Bitcoin Archive

➡️’Donald Trump Is Not the Bitcoin President He’s the stablecoin president, seeking to expand the monetary power and borrowing capacity of the U.S. government.’ - Alex Gladstein Source: https://reason.com/2025/09/12/donald-trump-is-not-the-bitcoin-president/

➡️Chinese Bitcoin treasury firm Next Technology plans to sell $500 million of stock to buy Bitcoin.

➡️Bitcoin has closed above $100,000 for 130 days in a row.

On the 17th of September: ➡️Someone bought $680 MILLION Bitcoin ahead of today’s rate cut decision.

➡️’Bitcoin is having its best September ever so far. Every time September closes green, October and November pump even harder.’ -Bitcoin Archive

On the 18th of September: ➡️Bitcoin supply on exchanges hit a 7-year low. Supply Shock Is For REAL. Prepare accordingly.’ - CarlBMenger

➡️Best September for Bitcoin in history:

➡️Bitcoin Sees Second Largest Inflow to Accumulation Addresses in 2025 - CryptoQuant

On the 19th of September: ➡️’Bitcoin miner difficulty hits a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH.’ - Bitcoin Magazine

➡️Marty Bent: “Vietnam just froze 86m bank accounts because account holders didn’t comply with new biometrics laws that require a face scan or fingerprint for account verification. If users don’t comply by the 30th, they’ll lose their money. This is why we have Bitcoin.”

A brutal reminder: the money in your bank isn’t really yours. I pray my Vietnamese brothers & sisters hold some Bitcoin in self-custody.

And please read Alex Gladstein’s book: Check your financial privilege.

➡️Asset manager Vanguard discloses $50 million in Metaplanet holdings. Yet still won’t offer clients Bitcoin ETFs

➡️Harvard University holds more in Bitcoin ETFs than it holds shares in Google.

On the 21st of September: ➡️$6 BILLION Bitcoin shorts to be liquidated at $120,000. Just 4% away.

➡️Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF is the fastest-growing ETF ever, reaching $80 billion AUM in just over a year.

On the 22nd of September: ➡️Bitcoin Archive: ‘The largest Bitcoin and crypto liquidation event of the year just happened’

➡️Strategy has acquired 850 BTC for ~$99.7 million at ~$117,344 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 26.0% YTD 2025. As of 9/21/2025, we hodl 639,835 Bitcoin acquired for ~$47.33 billion at ~$73,971 per Bitcoin.

➡️- Saylor’s Strategy: $99.7 million

• Metaplanet: $632 million
• Strive: $675 million
• Capital B: $62.2 million TOTAL: $1.47 BILLION Bitcoin bought this morning.

Regarding that Metaplanet buy: “Largest single Bitcoin purchase in our history. This marks the first tranche of proceeds from our public offering, lifting Metaplanet to #5 globally in corporate Bitcoin holdings.” - Simon Gerovich

➡️Vivek Ramaswamy’s Strive to acquire Bitcoin company Semler Scientific in an all-stock transaction.

➡️Deutsche Bank says central banks will buy and hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets by 2030. Stack accordingly. “The bank said neither bitcoin nor gold is likely to dethrone the dollar, as governments will act to protect monetary sovereignty. Deutsche Bank sees bitcoin’s adoption following a path similar to gold’s, moving from skepticism to widespread acceptance, with regulation, macroeconomic trends, and time paving the way.”

➡️US lawmakers urge the SEC to implement Trump’s executive order allowing Americans to invest 401 (k) retirement savings into Bitcoin and crypto. Americans hold over $9 TRILLION in 401 savings.

§💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 16th of September: 👉🏽‘The number of stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ hitting new 52-week highs just hit its highest level in 2025. There have now been 18 consecutive weeks with more new highs than new lows, the longest streak since 2021. This matches the 18-straight weeks seen during the rally in Q4 2024. Furthermore, 60% of the S&P 500’s components are now trading above their 200-day moving average, near the highest share since December 2024. The S&P 500 has hit 25 all-time highs year-to-date, its second-best streak since 2021. Bullish momentum is incredibly strong.’ -TKL

Fun fact, though: 91% of Fund Managers believe U.S. Stocks are overvalued, the most in history.

👉🏽‘AI CapEx spending is skyrocketing: CapEx as % of operating cash flow for the largest AI spenders hit a record 72% in Q2 2025. The percentage has DOUBLED over the last 2 years. Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle are now deploying more than double their pre-2022 average CapEx relative to operating cash flow. CapEx spending by hyperscalers is estimated to hit a record $433 billion in 2026. That would be 174% above the $158 billion recorded in 2022. CapEx is adding fuel to the fire.’ -TKL (foto)

On the 17th of September: 👉🏽When the Fed cut rates with stocks within 2% of record highs, the S&P 500 finished the next 12 months higher every single time. 20 out of 20 (100% win rate)

§🏦Banks:

On the 16th of September 👉🏽Swiss National Bank has a U.S. Equity Portfolio that is worth $167 billion or 18% of Switzerland’s GDP, and 25% of their portfolio is concentrated in just 5 stocks: Apple, Amazon, Meta, NVDA, MSFT Source: SEC & Financial Times

§🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 15th of September: 👉🏽EU Commission now admits that the COVID mRNA injections were released for use in humans without “complete” safety data. The EU Commission acknowledged that the first COVID-19 vaccines were granted conditional approval in 2020 without complete safety and efficacy data. Officials argued this was necessary in the pandemic, but critics say it turned millions of Europeans into “test subjects.” Austrian MEP Gerald Hauser pressed Brussels on who bears responsibility for potential vaccine injuries and why citizens weren’t fully informed. Meanwhile in the U.S., Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has overhauled vaccine policy, pulling recommendations for healthy children and pregnant women and demanding stricter approval standards. Source: Die Welt

The unelected EU Commissioner is lying again. Pfizer’s safety data was appalling, not incomplete, yet they went ahead anyway. She knew the manufacturing process for the crap they pushed into you was completely untested. She is a deeply distrustful woman. But hey, it is all about the benjamins, right?

On the 16th of September: 👉🏽 ‘Germany announced 125,000 industrial job cuts in 6 weeks. Putting that into perspective… If the U.S. got hit at the same rate, that’s like ~300,000 factory jobs or ~500,000 total jobs gone in a month and a half. Picture every factory worker in a state like South Carolina unemployed. That’s the scale.’ -Amanda Goodall

Germany is suffering massive layoffs in their manufacturing sector. Part of this is because Germans have intentionally made energy prices so expensive. Electricity is 3x more expensive compared to the USA. They shut down all of their nuclear power plants decades early. They allowed the UK to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline and said nothing. And the massively subsidized solar power in a country that is cloudy much of the year. Lousy energy policy has consequences. Source: https://www.insideredgereport.com/p/germanys-125000-job-cuts

Context: Layoffs announced in Germany, past 12 months: • Volkswagen: 35,000 • Mercedes-Benz: 40,000 • Audi: 7,500 • Ford: 2,900 • Daimler Truck: 5,000 • ZF Group: 14,000 • Bosch, Continental, Schaeffler (combined): 7,000 The German economy is not in a crisis; it’s imploding.

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: ‘Can someone please explain why the EU spends hundreds of billions on defense against Russia, and at the same time it finances Russia‘s military production with gas purchases? Does it make any sense to you?’

👉🏽Polymarket: Searches for “help with mortgage” surpass 2008 housing crisis.

The U.S. Housing Market has reached its most unaffordable level in history

👉🏽 The U.S. Dollar has now lost more than 10% of its value this year.

👉🏽TKL: “The quality of CPI inflation data continues to deteriorate: In August, 36% of CPI prices were estimated, up from 32% in July. Normally, BLS calculates CPI inflation by gathering ~90,000 monthly price quotes across 200 product and service categories. When price data is missing, the BLS fills the gaps with estimates, which usually make up ~10% of all data points. The share of estimates has rapidly surged over the last few months. As a result, CPI numbers are becoming less accurate and less reflective of real consumer costs. Confidence in the economic data is eroding.”

👉🏽If only our economies grew as fast as our laws and regulations…

‘From today’s Financial Times article, “EU economy falls behind global rivals due to complacency.” Mario Draghi is absolutely right. Without enacting key reforms, Europe will fall further behind. Productivity will continue to languish not only because of long-standing rigidities but also because new opportunities for growth and innovation will be missed. The resulting repeated growth disappointments will only worsen the deficit and debt problems facing some countries, with significant political and geopolitical implications.’ - Mohamed A. El-Erian

👉🏽U.S. Margin Debt jumps to $1.02 Trillion, a new all-time high. Remember, when the government prints another trillion, this is how much money they’re printing.

👉🏽Gold is on pace for its best year since 1979, up over 40% in 2025.

👉🏽‘China’s economy is weakening: Fixed-asset investment rose just +0.5% YoY in the first 8 months of 2025, the weakest growth on record outside of the 2020 pandemic. This comes as property investment plummeted -12.9%, the biggest drop in at least 25 years. Industrial production grew only +5.2% YoY in August, the slowest pace since August 2024. Retail sales slowed for the third consecutive month to +3.4% YoY in August, the weakest growth this year. All while a broad measure of credit growth slowed for the first time in 2025. The world’s second-largest economy is slowing.’ - TKL

👉🏽Barchart: “There is now a 48% chance of a recession occurring in the next 12 months. However, each prior instance of the odds hitting 48% did result in a recession.”

Context: Moody’s on a US recession: The probability of a recession within the next 12 months jumped to 48% in August, the highest since the 2020 pandemic. This is according to Moody’s Analytics’ leading economic indicator, which uses extensive economic data and a machine learning model. Historically, such a high probability has never occurred outside of recessions. This comes as US job market conditions have deteriorated significantly over the last few months. Additionally, the BLS revised non-farm payrolls down by -911,000 for the 12 months ending March 2025, marking the largest annual downward revision on record. Would earlier Fed rate cuts have prevented this?

On the 17th of September: 👉🏽‘Average Annual US Inflation Rate over the last… 1 Year: 2.9% 3 Years: 3.1% 5 Years: 4.5% 10 Years: 3.1% Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates 3x this year (Today, October, December) and 3 more times next year. Their 2% inflation target is a complete farce.’ -Charlie Bilello

👉🏽‘Eye-opening chart, Europe’s largest stock index is today where it was 25 years ago. Really good visualization of what happens when overregulation and left redistribution mindset replace free market, innovation, and entrepreneurialism.’ - Michael A. Arouet

👉🏽The US Senate rejects moving forward with Senator Rand Paul’s plan that balances the federal budget within 5 years, 36-62. Kicking the can down the road forever, and they will print forever!

👉🏽Netherlands: “The government will spend €486.3 billion next year, while raising only €451.4 billion. That’s more than 7% higher spending than income — a bill our children will be forced to pay — and an absolute record in the size of government.”

Now I will give you one example of how crazy things are… “The COA arranges a health insurance policy (…). Because they usually have little money, they do not have to pay any personal contribution. They are also exempt from the deductible. Healthcare for asylum seekers is separate from the regular health insurance system. Therefore, the costs have no impact on the premiums paid by other insured people.”

Now, don’t get me wrong, I don’t have a problem with asylum seekers. But although asylum seekers’ healthcare is formally kept outside the regular insurance system, all costs are still covered by taxpayers. So a statement like this is just a blatant lie: “Therefore, the costs have no impact on the premiums paid by other insured people. “ In fact, Dutch citizens fund the entire COA system, including housing, guidance, and healthcare. Migration and asylum currently cost around €24 billion per year, with some estimates and calculations putting the real figure closer to €40 billion.

Now read the bit above again, the Dutch government will spend €486.3 billion next year. Funny how that works, innit?

👉🏽TKL: ‘For the first time in 2025, the Fed just cut interest rates by 25 basis points and “blamed” a weaker labor market. Immediately after, the US Dollar fell to its weakest level since February 2022.’

👉🏽When a single headline encapsulates the extent of British state decline…

Context:

• Makes bombs in Egypt
• Gets caught
• Flees to the UK
• Claims political persecution
• UK taxpayers pay for his hotel
• UK govt finds out about the bomb stuff
• 17 months later, he’s still here
• Rapes a woman Brits, no government has ever hated its ppl more than your government hates you.

On the 18th of September: 👉🏽TKL: “The share of the top 10% of US consumers now accounts for 49.2% of all consumer spending, the highest level in data dating back to 1989. By comparison, this share was 43.2% in Q4 2019. Over the last 3 decades, this percentage has risen by 13 points. Consumer spending reflects 68% of US GDP, meaning the wealthiest 10% now drive roughly one-third of the entire economy. Meanwhile, the bottom 80% of earners, or households making under ~$175,000 a year, have seen spending barely outpace inflation since 2020. The US wealth divide is at unprecedented levels.”

On the 19th of September: 👉🏽“All these countries started from a similar level in 1950. Some were capitalist, others socialist. The results could not be more obvious. Why are so many young people excited about socialism? It has never worked and it never will.” - Michael A. Arouet

I truly think that young people have never lived under socialism, and never done any study on the history and the effects of socialism. They love the theory, but they haven’t experienced it.

👉🏽Foreign holdings of US Treasuries rose +$32 billion in July, to a record $9.16 trillion. Japan, the largest holder, added +$4 billion, lifting its total to $1.15 trillion, the highest since March 2024. The UK boosted its holdings by +$41 billion, to a record $899 billion. The Euro Area purchased +$44 billion, bringing total holdings to $1.91 trillion, an all-time high. Meanwhile, China’s holdings fell -$26 billion, to $731 billion, the lowest since December 2008. Foreign demand for Treasuries remains robust aside from China.

On the 20th of September: 👉🏽’ US margin debt jumped +$37 billion in August, to a record $1.06 trillion. Over the last 3 months, margin debt has surged +$139 BILLION. On a YoY basis, the margin debt levels have risen a whopping +$798 billion, or +33%. When adjusted for inflation, margin debt increased +3% MoM and +29% YoY, reaching its highest level since November 2021. As a % of GDP, margin debt reached 3.5% and is now only below levels seen in 2021. Investors are using margin to buy stocks like never before.’ - TKL

**On the 21st of September: ** 👉🏽Ray Dalio: “In 1945, the US had 80% of the world’s money. Gold was money at the time. It had half the world’s GDP. It had a monopoly on military power. So the US set the world order.” - Ray Dalio Ray Dalio’s books should be studied by all governments around the world if we ever want to be at peace with each other.

On the 22nd of September: 👉🏽Home prices need to fall -40% or incomes need to rise +60% just to return the housing market to 2019 levels. Generational crisis.

👉🏽‘US nominal GDP has grown 54% since the 2020 low, marking the strongest economic expansion since World War 2. This surpasses the 53% growth recorded in 1975-1978. It also corresponds to an average annual nominal GDP increase of 6%, indicating rapid expansion. By comparison, the post-2008 Financial Crisis recovery saw ~23% nominal growth until 2014. In other words, in Dollar terms, the US economy has grown twice as fast as it did after emerging from 2008. The US economy is experiencing a historic run.’ - TKL

👉🏽 The U.S. dollar is having its worst year in decades. - Financial Times

§🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift:

What Bitcoin Did: The End of Fed Control? Bitcoin & Macro Outlook | Checkmate, Joe Carlasare, Matthew Pines

Checkmate is an on-chain analyst and founder of Checkonchain, Joe Carlasare is a Commercial Litigator and macro commentator & Matthew Pines is the Executive Director at the Bitcoin Policy Institute.

They explain why the four-year cycle may finally be dead, how ETFs and institutional flows are reshaping Bitcoin’s volatility, and why 95K has become a critical “Hodler’s Wall.”

They get into gold’s resurgence and how central bank accumulation signals a structural shift in global finance, and how fiscal dominance is eroding the Fed’s independence. The roundtable also dives into the politics of debt, the prospect of yield curve control, and the AI-driven capex boom that could both fuel growth and deepen inequality.

In this episode: The end of the four-year cycle ETFs, flows, and the new volatility profile of Bitcoin The Federal Reserve & fiscal dominance AI & the future of productivity

https://youtu.be/7vrH5_qdGP4

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account:

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Use the code SE3997

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node…be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple. ⠀ ⠀

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