Japan’s Drone-and-AI Defense Push Tests the Limits of Deterrence

Japan’s Drone-and-AI Defense Push Tests the Limits of Deterrence
Japan sees unmanned weapons and AI as a way to preserve deterrence while its population ages and regional pressure rises. Critics, led by Beijing, view the same buildup as a troubling expansion of Japan’s military role.

The Defense Ministry on Monday disclosed its request for an 8.9 trillion yen ($55.6 billion) budget for the fiscal year beginning in April 2027, a modest rise from the 8.8 trillion yen sought for the current year. The proposal puts drones, artificial intelligence and new battlefield methods at the center of Japan’s next phase of rearmament.

The request follows the 2022 five-year strategy under which Japan moved to raise defense spending to roughly 2% of GDP and strengthen its counterstrike capacity, largely in response to China’s growing military assertiveness. Beijing, however, has criticized the Japanese buildup as “new militarism.”

Tokyo’s answer is to make its forces more lethal—and less dependent on manpower. The ministry wants low-cost uncrewed systems that can be mass-produced domestically, arguing they can cut costs, reduce casualties and reinforce air defenses. Planned capabilities include attack drones launched from above and below water, working alongside long-range cruise missiles, as well as submarine-launched hypersonic missiles.

AI is the other major bet. An integrated command-and-control platform would speed battlefield assessments and target selection, potentially combining foreign technology, including U.S. systems, with domestic development. A proposed “AI orchestrator” would coordinate multiple systems, while a Defense Ministry cloud would carry sensitive data in crises.

The ministry also wants the state to buy factories and contract private firms to operate them, seeking to prevent suppliers from abandoning a defense sector long squeezed by weak profits and reputational concerns. The program remains a request, with key costs and the final total still dependent on the government’s coming security strategy.

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