Lula leads the first round, but Bolsonaro has pulled the runoff into a tie.

Lula leads the first round, but Bolsonaro has pulled the runoff into a tie.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains ahead in the first-round presidential race, according to the latest AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll, but the survey also underscores how sharply the contest has tightened around Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

The first-round figures give Lula 44.1% and Bolsonaro 41.7%, with the senator gaining more than four percentage points from the previous week’s 37.4%. Lula also rose, though more modestly, from 43%. The same survey places Renan Santos third on 5.1%, followed by Augusto Cury on 3.5%; the remaining candidates poll below 2%.

That lead contrasts with the poll’s runoff simulation. Bolsonaro registers 47.2% to Lula’s 46.8%—a numerical advantage of 0.4 percentage points, but one well inside the survey’s one-point margin of error. One account of the results describes the matchup as an “empate técnico,” or statistical tie, noting that Bolsonaro also held a small edge in the preceding poll.

The broader set of second-round tests offers a more favorable reading for Lula. He leads Romeu Zema by 46.3% to 43.7%, Ronaldo Caiado by 46% to 41.7%, Augusto Cury by 45.6% to 37.8%, and Renan Santos by 46.1% to 29.7%.

The survey therefore supports both sides of the central political argument: Lula retains the strongest first-round position and outperforms several potential challengers, while Bolsonaro’s advance has turned the most prominent runoff scenario into a race too close to call. AtlasIntel surveyed 5,018 people online from September 11 to 16; the poll is registered with Brazil’s electoral court under BR-06221/2026 and reports a 95% confidence level.

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