Selic Cut Leaves Brazil at the Top of Global Real-Rate Ranking

Selic Cut Leaves Brazil at the Top of Global Real-Rate Ranking
Brazil remained the country with the highest real interest rate among the economies tracked by MoneYou and Lev Intelligence after the central bank’s monetary policy committee, Copom, cut the Selic rate from 14% to 13.75% a year. The estimated real rate stood at 8.45%, according to the surveys.

That left Brazil ahead of Russia, at 6.79%, and Colombia, at 6.33%. One account noted that Brazil’s lead over Russia widened from the previous round, when the two countries’ real rates were estimated at 9.30% and 9.09%, respectively. Turkey, at 6.25%, and Mexico, at 3.08%, completed the top five in the narrower ranking reported by the first survey.

The comparison is not a simple measure of central-bank rates. Real interest rates are calculated using a market-based reference rate and expected inflation over the following 12 months, making them a gauge of how restrictive policy is across countries with different inflation outlooks. Brazil’s latest Focus survey projected 2026 inflation at 4.9%, down from 5%, while the 2027 forecast edged up to 4.30%.

On nominal rates alone, Brazil’s standing was less exceptional. With the Selic at 13.75%, it fell from third to fourth among the 40 economies surveyed, behind Turkey at 37%, Argentina at 29% and Russia at 14%. The contrast underscores the central point of the real-rate ranking: Brazil’s position reflects both a high policy rate and the inflation expectations used to adjust it.

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