São Paulo poll shows Bolsonaro ahead, but Senate race remains wide open

São Paulo poll shows Bolsonaro ahead, but Senate race remains wide open
Real Time Big Data’s São Paulo survey draws a contrast between races with apparent front-runners and a Senate contest in which the leading names remain closely grouped. The poll interviewed 2,000 voters between September 16 and 19 and reported a margin of error of two percentage points.

For president, the poll places Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 41% among São Paulo voters, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 35%. In a head-to-head scenario, Bolsonaro receives 51% to Lula’s 45%, a six-point gap that the report describes as outside the survey’s margin of error. The result suggests a competitive state contest, but one in which Bolsonaro holds the numerical advantage in both tested scenarios.

The governor’s race shows a wider separation. Governor Tarcísio de Freitas is measured at 53% to former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad’s 38% in the first-round test; in a runoff simulation, the figures are 57% and 39%, respectively. Unlike the presidential matchup, the poll therefore indicates a more established lead for the incumbent at the state level.

The race for São Paulo’s two Senate seats is markedly less settled. Guilherme Derrite leads with 20%, followed by André do Prado at 18% and Simone Tebet at 17%; with the two-point margin of error, the three are in a statistical tie. Marina Silva, at 14%, is also tied with do Prado and Tebet, though not with Derrite under that measure. Ricardo Salles follows at 9%.

Together, the results show different degrees of certainty across the ballot: a modest presidential edge, a broader gubernatorial lead, and a Senate field where small shifts could still reorder the contenders.

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