Southern Brazil Braces for Cyclone Winds as Forecasts Diverge on Extreme Risks

Southern Brazil Braces for Cyclone Winds as Forecasts Diverge on Extreme Risks
Southern Brazil faces a volatile stretch of weather as an extratropical cyclone near Uruguay combines with an advancing cold front, bringing heavy rain, hail, lightning and potentially damaging winds to Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná.

One account centers on the official warning system. Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology, Inmet, issued an orange danger alert from midnight through 11:59 p.m. Monday, forecasting gusts of up to 100 km/h, rainfall of up to 60 millimeters an hour and possible hail across parts of all three southern states. It warns that the conditions could cause flooding, falling trees, power-network damage and agricultural losses.

That assessment places particular emphasis on immediate public safety. Civil-defense authorities in Santa Catarina described the risk of incidents including roof damage, flooding, flash flooding and isolated landslides in vulnerable locations as “very high.” Inmet advised residents not to shelter beneath trees or park near transmission towers and advertising signs, and to disconnect electrical equipment where possible.

A second forecast agrees on the core hazards but presents a broader and more severe outlook. It says accumulated rainfall could exceed 200 millimeters in Rio Grande do Sul and 100 millimeters in Santa Catarina and Paraná by Tuesday, while warning that organized storms may produce intense gusts and hail.

It also raises the prospect of localized tornadoes and microbursts—violent, concentrated wind events—alongside the more widely expected storm impacts. Beyond the South, it anticipates the front extending unstable conditions into parts of the Southeast and Center-West.

Both forecasts expect colder air to follow the storms. The broader projection says temperatures could fall below 10°C in far southern Rio Grande do Sul on Tuesday, with readings near 4°C and frost possible in some municipalities in the following days.

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