Jorginho Mello holds commanding lead as Senate race tightens in Santa Catarina

Jorginho Mello holds commanding lead as Senate race tightens in Santa Catarina
Governor Jorginho Mello of the Liberal Party (PL) would win re-election in the first round if Santa Catarina voted under the scenario measured by Paraná Pesquisas, according to a survey published Wednesday.

Mello received 58.8% of stated voting intentions, far ahead of João Rodrigues of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), who had 16.5%. Gelson Merísio of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) followed with 11.3%, while the remaining listed candidates each registered close to or below 1%. The figures put Mello above the threshold needed to avoid a runoff, although they represent a snapshot rather than an election result.

The Senate contest offers a sharper contrast. Federal deputy Carol de Toni, also of the PL, led the field with 42.3%, giving her a clearer position than the candidates competing for the second of Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats. Former councilman Carlos Bolsonaro, another PL figure, was on 36%, while incumbent Senator Esperidião Amin of Progressistas recorded 34.2% — a gap within the survey’s margin of error.

The poll therefore depicts two different races: a governor contest dominated by the incumbent and a Senate election in which de Toni leads but Bolsonaro and Amin remain closely matched. Décio Lima of the Workers’ Party (PT) was fourth in the Senate survey with 15.6%, followed by Lunelli of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) at 7.2% and Afrânio Boppré of the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) at 6.6%.

Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 1,384 voters in 52 municipalities between September 20 and 22, 2026. It reported a 2.7-percentage-point margin of error and a 95% confidence level; the poll was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under SC-00523/2026.

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