Lula’s narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro vanishes within the poll’s margin of error

Lula’s narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro vanishes within the poll’s margin of error
Brazil’s 2026 presidential race is effectively level between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to a new Meio/Ideia poll, despite Lula’s narrow numerical edge in both first- and second-round scenarios.

In the prompted first-round ballot, Lula received 39.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 38.4%, a one-point difference that is smaller than the survey’s 2.2-point margin of error. The same pattern appears in the runoff simulation: Lula had 48.5%, compared with Bolsonaro’s 48%. The poll’s assessment is that there is “no statistically significant advantage” for either candidate under that scenario.

The gap remains similarly tight when voters are asked to name a candidate without being shown a list. Lula was mentioned by 31.5% and Bolsonaro by 30.5%, while the share of undecided voters fell from 26% in the previous round to 17.5%.

The survey nevertheless places Lula ahead of the other opponents tested in head-to-head matchups. He led Augusto Cury by 48% to 44%, Ronaldo Caiado by 48.5% to 44.6%, Renan Santos by 48% to 41.3%, and Romeu Zema by 48.5% to 44%.

Views of Lula’s government were also divided. Forty-nine percent said they approved of his performance and the same share said they disapproved. In the more detailed assessment, 35.3% rated the administration good or excellent, while 41% rated it poor or very poor.

Meio/Ideia conducted 2,000 telephone interviews nationwide with voters aged 16 and older from September 25 to 28. The survey, registered with Brazil’s electoral court under BR-08706/2026-BRASIL, reports a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 points.

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