Paes Leads Rio Governor Race as Garotinho’s Status Could Decide First Round

Paes Leads Rio Governor Race as Garotinho’s Status Could Decide First Round
Eduardo Paes of the PSD leads the race for governor of Rio de Janeiro in both Paraná Pesquisas first-round scenarios, while Douglas Ruas of the PL remains his nearest challenger. The central contrast is not between the two leaders’ positions, but between a ballot including Anthony Garotinho and one without him.

In the scenario with Garotinho listed, Paes receives 41.9% of voting intentions, against 30.1% for Ruas and 8.2% for Garotinho. In terms of valid votes, the survey puts Paes at 47.9% — short of the majority needed to win outright in the first round. The same poll places William Siri at 1.9%, André Marinho at 1.7%, Juliete and Cyro Garcia at 1.3% each, with the remaining candidates below 1%.

The alternative scenario reflects uncertainty over Garotinho’s candidacy. Rio’s regional electoral court rejected his registration, and he has appealed to the Superior Electoral Court; while the case awaits a final ruling, his candidacy remains “sub judice.” If his name is removed, Paes rises to 44.5% and Ruas to 32.6%. The first article calculates that Paes would then reach 52% of valid votes, enough for a first-round win.

The figures also offer a mixed comparison with Paraná Pesquisas’ prior poll: Paes had registered 43.1%, while Ruas was at 26.7%. That means Paes remains ahead but lower in the latest head-to-head measure, whereas Ruas has gained ground.

Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 1,600 voters across Rio de Janeiro state from September 29 to October 1, 2026. The poll, registered as RJ-07095/2026, has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

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