Renan Filho’s narrow edge over JHC leaves Alagoas race too close to call

Renan Filho’s narrow edge over JHC leaves Alagoas race too close to call
Renan Filho of the MDB is ahead of João Henrique Caldas, known as JHC, of the PSDB in the latest Alagoas gubernatorial poll — but the survey’s margin of error means the contest remains statistically tied rather than settled.

Real Time Big Data put Renan Filho at 49% and JHC at 46% in the first-round scenario. With a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, the three-point difference is not enough to establish a definitive leader. The survey described the race as a “technical tie,” despite Renan Filho’s numerical edge.

That reading differs from a simple interpretation of the topline numbers: Renan Filho is close to the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, while JHC remains within reach. The same 49%–46% result appeared in the poll’s simulated second round, reinforcing the view that a head-to-head contest would also be highly competitive.

The newer figures show both leading candidates gaining compared with Real Time’s September 25 survey, when Renan Filho had 47% and JHC had 44%. Their relative positions therefore remained unchanged: both improved, but neither broke clear of the other within the survey’s sampling limits.

Other candidates did not register support in the gubernatorial scenario. Blank or null responses accounted for 3%, while 2% said they did not know or did not answer.

The institute interviewed 1,600 voters in Alagoas from September 29 to October 1. The poll, registered as AL-01185/2026, has a 95% confidence level and a two-point margin of error.

In the Senate contest covered by the same survey, Marina JHC led with 27%, followed by Renan Calheiros on 23% and Arthur Lira on 22%, a separate race with its own closely grouped front-runners.

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