Quaest puts Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a race too close to call

Quaest puts Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a race too close to call
Quaest’s final survey before the first round depicts an unusually tight presidential contest: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 46% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 45%, a one-point gap inside the poll’s two-point margin of error.

Coverage from the Brazil Right foregrounds the valid-vote measure — which excludes blank, invalid and undecided responses — and stresses that the contest is a “technical tie within the margin of error.” In that framing, neither candidate can claim a clear first-round advantage despite Lula’s numerical lead. The report also treats the runoff exercise with similar caution: Flávio Bolsonaro posts 44% to Lula’s 42%, but that difference likewise falls within the stated margin.

The Brazil Left account reaches the same basic conclusion while placing more weight on the poll’s changes from the previous survey and on total-vote figures. It reports Lula at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% when all respondents are counted, including undecided and blank or invalid-vote respondents. Lula rose from 39% in the prior poll, while Bolsonaro increased from 34% to 38%; the outlet describes the result as a “technical tie” on the eve of voting.

The two accounts therefore differ less over the numbers than over what deserves emphasis. The right-leaning report highlights the limits of polling and notes that surveys are a snapshot rather than a forecast. The left-leaning report underscores Bolsonaro’s recent gain and the runoff scenario, where he moved from a 42%-42% tie in the previous poll to a narrow numerical lead.

Quaest interviewed 3,702 voters on October 2 and 3, 2026, with a 95% confidence level. The poll was registered with Brazil’s electoral authorities as BR-02197/2026.

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