China’s Rising Aluminum Output Cushions Gulf Supply Shock

A facts-only brief, written by a local AI model from this article in The Wall Street Journal, October 22, 2026. It may contain mistakes, and it is not the article: the full story is at wsj.com.

Chinese aluminum exports increased by 16% year-over-year during the first eight months of 2026, adding approximately 670,000 metric tons to global supply according to the U.S. Commerce Department. This surge helped mitigate a roughly 970,000-ton drop in shipments from the United Arab Emirates, which suffered production losses due to the conflict in the Middle East. Consequently, three-month aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange fell to around $3,000 per metric ton, down 8% from the previous month.

Background

• Chinese primary aluminum production reached 3.91 million metric tons in September, a 3.1% increase from the same period last year, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics.
• Emirates Global Aluminium has restarted half of its Al Taweelah smelter units and aims for full production by the first quarter of next year, while also diversifying shipping routes via the U.A.E. east coast.
• The International Aluminium Institute noted that Gulf state production in September remained 35% below prewar levels, though Aluminium Bahrain is operating at about 80% of its previous capacity.
• Morgan Stanley analysts project a market surplus exceeding 800,000 tons in 2027, expecting prices to decline to $2,800 per ton as Indonesian output expands and Middle Eastern supply recovers.

Read the full article at wsj.com

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