European Gas Market Braces for Trump’s Next Move on Iran After Midterms

A facts-only brief, written by a local AI model from this article in The Wall Street Journal, November 4, 2026. It may contain mistakes, and it is not the article: the full story is at wsj.com.

European natural-gas prices declined on Wednesday following the Democratic victory in the U.S. midterm elections, with the Dutch TTF benchmark dropping 3.7% to 88.19 euros per megawatt-hour. Traders are currently assessing whether President Trump will resume military strikes on Iran or pursue diplomatic negotiations, a decision that could push prices back above 100 euros. Rabobank strategist Florence Schmit noted that uncertainty persists regarding potential Iranian retaliation and which regional energy infrastructure might be targeted. The new U.S. Congress will not take office until January, leaving the administration with time to maintain its current approach toward Tehran in the interim.

Background

• Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have reduced liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, intensifying competition between European and Asian buyers ahead of winter.
• Kpler data indicates that global LNG exports reached 98% of pre-war averages in October, supported by increased U.S. and Russian shipments, while Qatar’s exports recovered to 2.3 million metric tons.
• European Union gas storage levels stood at 74.6% in October, below the seasonal average, with Germany missing its 70% refilling target.
• The EU plans to ban Russian LNG imports starting in January 2027, which could further complicate supply replenishment efforts for the region.

Read the full article at wsj.com

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