Lula, a Giant of Latin America’s Left, Fights for One Last Shot at Power

A facts-only brief, written by a local AI model from this article in The Wall Street Journal, October 24, 2026. It may contain mistakes, and it is not the article: the full story is at wsj.com.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva trails Flávio Bolsonaro by 2.2 million votes ahead of Brazil’s Sunday runoff, with pollsters indicating that victory depends on mobilizing the 33.4 million voters who abstained from the October 4 first round. A Quaest poll suggests da Silva holds a slight edge among those who skipped voting or cast invalid ballots, though historical data shows abstention rates typically rise between rounds. Both candidates have recently adopted similar populist platforms, including promises of expanded benefits for the poor and a shorter workweek, while facing various legal controversies. Da Silva is specifically targeting voters over 70, a demographic where voting is optional and turnout was low in the initial vote.

Background

• Brazil made voting compulsory in 1932, and citizens who miss an election without justification face fines that can restrict passport issuance or future voting rights.
• Abstention in the first round of presidential elections has increased in every cycle since 2006, reaching 21.1% in October.
• A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll found that 62% of men expressed high interest in the race, compared to only 49% of women.
• International IDEA reported that the global share of voting-age adults casting ballots dropped from 65% in 2008 to 56% in 2023.

Read the full article at wsj.com

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