‘Broken China’ Review: A Mirage of Growth

A facts-only brief, written by a local AI model from this article in The Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2026. It may contain mistakes, and it is not the article: the full story is at wsj.com.

A book review argues that Logan Wright’s Broken China refutes the idea that Beijing possesses superior long-term strategic vision by showing its economic model is failing. The author states that Wright contends Chinese leaders have overloaded financial institutions and local governments with inefficient investments, leaving the country with only two options: steady decline or difficult restructuring. Wright estimates actual GDP growth was between 2.5% and 3% in 2025, far below the official 5% target, and predicts it may reach zero this year. The review notes that this statistical gap is crucial to geopolitical strategy because Beijing uses high growth claims to persuade other nations to align with it.

Background

• Wright identifies a massive surge in lending starting in 2008 as the primary cause of the current crisis, driven by uneconomic spending on infrastructure and real estate.
• Housing construction fell 69% from its 2021 peak by the end of 2024, a drop that took Japan 15 years to achieve during its own property collapse.
• China’s trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion last year, fueled by a 20% decline in domestic car sales and a 60% rise in exports.
• The review suggests the U.S. likely grew faster than China over the last five years and urges Western allies to coordinate against Chinese export surges.

Read the full article at wsj.com

More from Tuesday, November 3: