US intel warns Russia could launch limited attack on NATO ally in effort to fragment organization: report

U.S. intelligence now suggests Russian President Vladimir Putin may attack a NATO member country within the next few years, aiming to fragment the alliance and test Article 5. This potential attack could range from cyber warfare to a limited land incursion, likely targeting the Baltics or Poland, and could occur anytime between fall and 2029. The primary challenge for NATO lies in how to respond to such “sub-Article 5” attacks, which have historically been met with a preference to avoid escalation.

• New U.S. intelligence indicates Russia may attack a NATO member country between fall and 2029.
• The goal of such an attack would be to fragment the post-WWII organization and test Article 5.
• The attack is likely to be limited, possibly a cyberattack or small-scale land incursion, potentially focused on the Baltics or Poland.
• This assessment comes amid concerns about depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles, though the Pentagon denies this.
• NATO is aware of potential scenarios and states it is ready to deter and defend as necessary.