Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz might not return to levels seen before the Iran war Following the Iran war, oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz may not return to pre-war levels as shipowners weigh the risks of renewed fighting and U.S. sanctions. The Red Sea crisis serves as a precedent, demonstrating that geopolitical instability can cause long-lasting disruptions to vital trade chokepoints, with Hormuz lacking viable alternatives.

• Shipowners may hesitate to use the Strait of Hormuz due to the risk of renewed conflict and potential violation of U.S. sanctions.
• Iran’s blockade has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, with potential long-term consequences for global energy markets.
• The Red Sea crisis illustrates how geopolitical instability can lead to prolonged disruptions at maritime chokepoints, even without a large navy.
• Unlike the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint with no viable alternatives for global energy and commodity transport.
• While pipelines can mitigate some supply disruptions, they cannot fully replace the volume and variety of goods transported through Hormuz.
• The future importance of Hormuz may decline as Gulf nations build alternative pipelines, but energy production from these nations will remain significant.