Leaky Sky. Videos of attacks on Moscow: Russian missiles miss Ukrainian drones. Experts on the problems of the capital's air defense

Despite loud statements by Russian authorities about the amazing capabilities of their own air defense, Ukrainian drones continue to hit targets in Moscow. "Novaya Gazeta Europe" discussed with experts the work of the Russian army's air defense in the Moscow region of Russia. A man inspects an apartment building damaged by a drone attack near Moscow, Russia, May 17, 2026. Photo: Maxim Shipenkov / EPA. Defective Defense After the largest drone raid on Moscow on June 18, which hit the oil refinery in Kapotnya, markets, and residential buildings, many videos appeared online showing Russian anti-aircraft missiles missing flying drones, flying "into milk" or crashing into objects on the territory of the oil refinery. The day before, "Novaya-Europe" had already reported on the problems of Russian air defense around Moscow. "The problems of air defense in the Moscow region began with the fact that long-range detection systems missed a wave of Ukrainian drones at long approaches," says military expert, retired Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan to "Novaya-Europe". "The absence of an alarm signal in the attacked areas is evidenced by this. As a result, short-range systems - Pantsir anti-aircraft missile and gun systems - were forced to deploy and operate inside the perimeter. This led to a malfunction in the radars, initially configured to detect targets approaching from the outside. In fact, the air defense was working into its own rear. Although the perimeter system on which the air defense around the Russian capital is built is designed precisely to prevent enemy aerial vehicles from reaching the city itself." Moreover, according to Svitan, missiles launched over dense urban development are very likely to fall on residential areas. The same fate awaits downed drones, which is extremely dangerous for civilians. The absence of warnings about the start of the raid, in turn, makes the threat even more serious. "I am absolutely not surprised by the low effectiveness demonstrated by the Russian air defense in intercepting low-flying small-sized targets," says military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group Alexander Kovalenko to "Novaya-Europe". "Mainly, the Russian army uses the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile system to combat Ukrainian drones. Even in Syria, in real combat conditions, this system has already shown itself to be a rather unsuccessful development. Then, in Karabakh and Libya, these systems also failed to adequately combat "Bayraktars", for which they were created. On the contrary, drones attacked and destroyed "Pantsirs". This anti-aircraft missile system has many "childhood illnesses" and defects, flaws in the target detection, tracking, and fire control systems, which prevent it from working effectively against drones. However, manufacturer lobbying ultimately led to the "Pantsir-S1" becoming the most widespread short-range anti-aircraft missile system in the Russian army." According to Kovalenko, the 30-mm guns of the "Pantsir-S1" are incapable of hitting low-flying subsonic targets. But the missiles also cannot guarantee to shoot down a slow-moving drone. Sometimes 3-4 missiles are used for one target. One missile costs $30-40 thousand, while the drone costs $15 thousand. Municipal workers mow the grass against the background of smoke rising in the background after reports of a Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow, Russia, June 18, 2026. Photo: EPA. The missiles of the "Pantsir-S1" complex can shoot down targets at a distance of 18-20 kilometers, while the "Pantsir-SMD-E" modification fires "Gvozd" missiles at very short distances - up to 7 kilometers. In addition, according to Svitan, many "Pantsir-S1" missiles have a thermal seeker: for such projectiles, target selection occurs by thermal signature. "Simply put, where it's hotter, the missile will fly there. This is the principle by which heat flares on aircraft work. "Some oil processing plant will glow much stronger in infrared radiation than a drone. Therefore, it is not surprising that one of the missiles went instead of the drone directly to the oil refinery infrastructure," explains the expert. The missiles of Russian man-portable air defense systems most often also have a thermal seeker, so they suffer from the same problems when dealing with UAVs, notes Svitan. In this case, "Gvozd" missiles are controlled by radio channel from the ground by a special computing system, which can perceive significant masses of metal as a priority target and direct the missile, for example, to an oil tank. It is the "Pantsir-S1" anti-aircraft missile system that is installed on the roofs of Moscow buildings, claims Kovalenko. "Urban high-rise buildings deprive this complex of the ability to reliably detect and track targets. In such a situation, as happened in Moscow, a missile can go off course and hit residential buildings or industrial facilities. Even in occupied Crimea, "Pantsir-S1" missiles often missed drones and exploded upon impact with the ground. Ineffective Methods Videos of attacks on Moscow often feature gunfire from various small arms - apparently, mainly from assault rifles and machine guns. It is possible that in addition to guarding the oil refinery, mobile firing groups were also operating in the Russian capital, which were previously often used in Ukraine to hunt Russian drones, according to experts interviewed by "Novaya-Europe". Shooting from small arms, even machine guns, according to Svitan, is extremely ineffective in combating massive drone attacks. It is only possible to shoot down a small UAV flying at a speed of 150-200 kilometers per hour from the ground by accident, which is why Ukraine has abandoned the tactic of using mobile firing groups to hunt Russian drones. If a bullet hits the wing or tail, the drone will continue to fly to its target. For effective operation, mobile firing groups - usually pickups with mounted machine guns - need to know in advance where the drones are coming from, how many there are, and what type they are. However, Ukraine uses many different strike drones that vary in speed, flight altitude, and other characteristics. Because of this, small arms fire is often ineffective: there is no universal way to combat all such targets. In addition, covering such large territories as Moscow or even all of Russia with mobile groups is extremely difficult, explains Kovalenko. Svitan did not notice the use of interceptor drones in the videos of attacks on Moscow. He notes that the Russian army has such systems, for example, "Yolka", designed to combat Ukrainian drones. However, launching one such complex requires a crew of at least four people. To deploy similar groups along the perimeter of Moscow, about 250 kilometers long, thousands of trained military personnel would be needed. Even then, each point could only shoot down a couple of drones, and the remaining targets would continue to move. According to Kovalenko's assessment, Russia is significantly inferior to Ukraine in the development and production of interceptor drones. "Moscow's air defense could not stop the strikes on targets in the metropolis," summarizes the expert. "Therefore, strikes on the Russian capital will be scaled up and gain intensity. That's for sure."