Ukraine is intensifying its attacks on Russia's oil and chemical industries each month. Refineries, fuel tanks, and complex chemical production facilities are being targeted. "Novaya-Yevropa" discussed with experts how this strategy could impact the course of hostilities and the supply of fuel and ammunition to the Russian army. Black smoke rises from the Moscow refinery of the Russian oil company Gazprom Neft on the southeastern outskirts of Moscow, Russia, June 18, 2026. Photo: EPA. Attacks are intensifying On Friday, June 26, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked Moscow, annexed Crimea by the Russian Federation, Tula, and other regions of Russia with drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of 660 UAVs over 12 Russian regions, annexed Crimea, and the waters of the Black and Azov Seas. According to the Telegram channel Astra, drones attacked the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, all night. Numerous explosions were heard in the city, the publication writes, citing local residents. The enterprise was previously attacked by the AFU on June 14. The Azot plant is the largest Russian producer of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers. A series of Ukrainian drone raids, which managed to hit Russian oil refineries 16 times in May alone, including eight out of the ten largest, has thrown the Russian oil refining industry two decades back. Open sources state that from the beginning of the full-scale invasion to June 21 of this year, Ukrainian drones have carried out at least 158 strikes on Russian oil refineries. By February 2026, losses of Russian oil companies from Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries exceeded 1 trillion rubles. At least 24 out of 33 major refineries (with a processing capacity of over 1 million tons of oil per year) were attacked. The year 2025 became a record year for the number of attacks, and in 2026, Ukraine has almost repeated the performance of the entire 2024. Only two major plants beyond the Urals remain untouched: Omsk and Angarsk. All for the front Due to Ukrainian air attacks, restrictions on fuel sales have been introduced in dozens of regions of Russia. But is the army feeling a shortage of fuel? Experts believe that the armed forces will feel the deficit of gasoline and diesel fuel last. "The effect of the strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure and refineries is already visible to the naked eye," Alexander Kovalenko, a military-political observer for the "Information Resistance" group, tells "Novaya-Yevropa." "In many regions of Russia, long queues are forming at gas stations. In some regions, fuel sales have been completely stopped. But during military operations, the army is always supplied with fuel and lubricants on a priority basis. This can happen even at the expense of the civilian population. "Everything for the front, everything for victory!" is the slogan in the Russian Federation today. Therefore, it will take longer to wait for a fuel crisis in the troops than among civilians." "We do not see that the strikes on refineries and fuel infrastructure have had any impact on military operations," an analyst from CIT (Conflict Intelligence Team), who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity, tells "Novaya-Yevropa." "At the front, Russians have some difficulties with delivering gasoline to the "zero" (front line), but not critical ones. We would not call it a crisis. We believe that in case of a shortage, the army will be prioritized. For example, now in Crimea, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation should receive lubricants in the required volumes. But this does not apply to equipment that is not officially on the Ministry of Defense's balance sheet. Such as volunteer vehicles, motorcycles, and so on." "It is obvious that the army has gasoline, and even more so diesel fuel, in Russia at the moment," says military researcher Kirill Mikhailov. "There are no large-scale consequences precisely due to the fuel crisis or shell hunger, but it is a long and systemic process. However, there are exceptions." On videos showing cars loaded with fuel canisters, a voice-over says that units of the Russian army lack gasoline for combat missions. Moreover, fuel for the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region near the city of Tokmak, where the 58th Army of the Russian Armed Forces is currently fighting, is being transported all the way from distant Dagestan. Smoke over the Gulf of Finland after an attack on an oil refinery in St. Petersburg, Russia, June 3, 2026. Photo: Novaya Gazeta Europe. Resource accumulation According to Alexander Kovalenko, the Russian armed forces have their own fuel and lubricants depots. Ukrainian drones are targeting them. However, significant reserves may still be in these depots. At the same time, according to open sources, there is already a fuel shortage observed in some sections of the front. After the AFU created a logistical lockdown in the area reachable by mid-range drones, the situation with supplying soldiers at the front line has significantly worsened. The process of offensive operations has slowed down. Part of the credit for this also goes to the UAV operators who attacked refineries and oil depots. "The Russian army is currently in a period of resource accumulation for the peak of the summer offensive campaign," says Roman Svitan, a military expert and retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to "Novaya-Yevropa." "Fuel is being stored in special tanks, from where it is distributed to specific units. Although the AFU is also attacking these facilities, for now, Russians still have sufficient reserves of aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline. So, the strikes on refineries and oil infrastructure are work for the future. It is important to destroy not only oil refining enterprises but also strategic oil depots, as happened in Rybinsk. Fuel from there goes, among other things, to meet the needs of the Russian Armed Forces. According to Roman Svitan, a fuel shortage in the Russian army may begin during attempts to go on the offensive in August-September of this year. This should be caused by the synergistic effect of strikes on refineries and fuel depots. Usually, offensive operations are planned by Russians for the period after the harvest campaign. This is directly related to the distribution of diesel fuel between the army and agriculture. It is clear that this year the entire economy will face a serious deficit. This cannot but affect the army. Destroying the industry - Ukraine's task is not just to deprive the Russian army of fuel and lubricants, - states Alexander Kovalenko. - It is also important that taxes on extraction, processing, and sale of oil products, including abroad, stop flowing into the Russian budget. The main task of the Russian budget today is to continue financing the war. And the less money flows into it, the fewer opportunities Russians will have to attack and shell Ukraine. And cutting social budget items can lead to protests among citizens. Russians already have many questions for the leadership of an oil-producing country that has left them without gasoline. Alexander Kovalenko believes that "Ukraine is essentially depriving Russia of its oil refining industry today. If the war continues, Ukraine's defense forces will destroy most of the refineries in the European part of the country. Given the sanctions, it will be practically impossible to restore the industry to its pre-2022 level. This is the task of the entire operation against the Russian oil industry - to force Putin to go to negotiations and a ceasefire." Photo: social media. Unique plants Russian chemical plants that produce components for explosives and gunpowder are also, according to Roman Svitan, frequently subjected to Ukrainian attacks. Most often, these are enterprises producing ammonium nitrate and concentrated nitric acid. Currently, Russia has certain reserves of these chemicals. However, they should run out soon. And then the Russian military-industrial complex will be forced to reduce the intensity of ammunition production. But this may only affect the next offensive campaign of the Russian army. According to CIT analysts, strikes on chemical production facilities are likely to be ineffective because chemical plants are large, and it is very difficult to damage them with drones. "Large chemical enterprises are a more complex target for Ukraine's defense forces than refineries," explains Alexander Kovalenko. "There are far fewer vulnerable spots on their territory for drone attacks. However, any damage to workshops or equipment inevitably leads, according to safety regulations, to a suspension of production. A few drone strikes are enough for this. As a result, supplies of key components for enterprises producing explosives for shells and rockets are suspended for an indefinite period. Most chemical plants in Russia, according to Alexander Kovalenko, are unique. Their products cannot be replaced. It is difficult to import them. Damage to each such enterprise causes irreparable damage to the entire industry. So these strikes will show their effectiveness in the near future.