Sad to see Jensen Huang claim that AGI has arrived, with no evidence and no definitions
Declaring victory without a definition simply muddies the water
A couple hours ago Jensen Huang declared that the race to AGI is over.
Unfortunately, Huang gave no evidence and no definitions, which feels to me like an effort at a takeover of a scientific question by corporate fiat.
I would urge him to read[agidefinition.AI](https://www.agidefinition.ai/)by Hendrycks, Yoshua Bengio & many others (including myself), and to consider how Astra is doing on the kinds of examples I laid out in my 10 -item[bet with Brundage](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027?r=8tdk6&utm_medium=ios). Autoformalization may finally be in reach, and maybe (?) reliable coding; I doubt that Astra will have hit any of the other eight.
s_!8mW4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe28f4029-948d-4978-9774-9fb94129c8f9_1318x1587.png)
By conventional definitions, Astra still falls short.
Declaring victory without a definition simply muddies the waters.
§
Aside from the lack of definitions, I would expect that if Astra really were AGI, it would be a quantum leap ahead of its competitors. Instead, many see it as not much more than on a par with Fable 5.1 in real-world applications:
And one well-respected set of benchmarks suggests that Astra is a genuine improvement but not significantly off-trend.
When real AGI arrives, we won’t need to squint our eyes.
And we won’t need Jensen’s approval, either. The results, at that point, will speak for themselves.
[Subscribe now](https://garymarcus.substack.com/subscribe?)
_Update: One reader pointed to the ARC-AGI test as a criterion. Here’s what the inventor of ARC said about this:_
_Update two: Although Jensen congratulated OpenAI today, about six months he already declared victory, pre-Astra, with respect to an earlier model._
s_!BAU3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e9db0a9-e4d5-4585-86d2-2c3551a0e64b_1218x722.png)
https://bender.layer3.press/articles/db43f6a2-dd87-4a64-ab0e-46d481815210
Write a comment