1. Greetings from the Home Front

The attack on Iran by the USA and Israel on February 28, 2026, is a war of aggression that violates international law. There is no doubt about this, even if the propaganda press spins it as a preemptive strike and the majority of the population wants to believe the ahistorical media fairy tale of having no alternative 1.

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One of the first war targets was an elementary school for girls. Result: 165 dead children. A clear war crime. If the rules of the Nuremberg Trials were applied, Donald Trump, Bibi Netanyahu, and their camarilla would hang from the gallows 2. This shows the hypocrisy and moral depravity of the West.

If one is looking for examples of the bigotry of Germany’s value-world champions, a look at Kiel is worthwhile. The presidium of Christian-Albrechts-University, on the occasion of the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, states in a circular to “CAU students”:

“Institutional research collaborations with Russia remain suspended as a sign of solidarity with Ukraine. This affects, among other things, joint publications, third-party funded projects, or conferences. Exchange programs for students remain frozen. The implementation of joint degree programs is also affected. CAU students still cannot stay in Russia. Business trips to Russia remain prohibited given the current situation…” [3]

One may ask on what legal basis the University of Kiel wants to deny students the right to travel to Russia, and with what frivolity the presidium intends to disregard the freedom of research and teaching according to Art. 5 of the German Basic Law. One could even perceive this as coercion.

I am curious whether the presidium of CAU, after the war of aggression by the USA and Israel against Iran that violates international law, will also prohibit students from traveling to the United States or Israel and suspend all cooperation with these countries. One will probably wait in vain for that. This shows the duplicity of the moral apostles in the ideological apparatuses of the propaganda war, to which CAU belongs. It also shows: Germany is already a party to the war in both conflicts – the one with Russia and the one against Iran.

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2. Germany as a Party to the War

The Federal Republic, which after the catastrophes of the 20th century triggered by Germany with almost 200 million dead, would have every reason to work for peace, is right at the forefront [4]. This is unconstitutional. Because the Basic Law obliges German politics to serve peace [5].

This does not stop German intellectuals – or what is left of them: academics – from acting as warmongers in the propaganda battle. Media, churches, unions, universities act as worthy descendants of the Inquisition, as the University of Kiel also documented through my dismissal as a lecturer, which, incidentally, was declared clearly illegal by the Schleswig Administrative Court [6]. The Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci had pointed out completely correctly: In times of crisis, “the European intellectuals… no longer represent the cultural self-confidence, the self-criticism of the ruling class; they have again become direct agents of the ruling class…” [7]

Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared his full political support for the war of aggression violating international law on March 1, 2026. In a grotesque perpetrator-victim reversal, he called on Tehran to end the escalation. That is propaganda. In fact, this is a long-prepared war aimed at forcing a regime change. Merz made no secret of the fact that Berlin shares this goal: “That is why now is not the moment to lecture our partners and allies.” With this, German imperialism openly declares that it disregards international legal norms when it comes to “fundamental interests” that must be enforced “if necessary with military force.”

Forum Geopolitica comments: “Sometimes the truth comes out when you let a fool speak.” 8

Merz’s statement that he was informed of the attack in advance shows how directly the Federal Republic is involved in the strategic planning. The goal is the installation of a pro-Western puppet regime in Tehran that would open the oil and gas reserves to Western corporations [9]. This is classic free-rider imperialism: The USA leads, the Federal Republic hopes for a share of the spoils.

Meanwhile, the war is arriving in Europe: Iran attacked a British base in Cyprus with a drone. The Royal Navy sent a destroyer. The German government is having German citizens picked up from the war zone. At least seven US soldiers were killed by March 9, 2026. Geopolitical observers like former CIA analyst Larry Johnson or Col. ret. Daniel Davis, who gained experience in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and was decorated for it, assume that the number of US casualties is significantly higher 10.

By March 8, 2026, Israelis and Americans had killed more than 1,330 civilians in Iran, according to the Red Crescent – more civilian casualties than in the war in Ukraine in one year 11. The number of injured on the US side is unknown. But it is precisely for such cases that the US Army established the largest military hospital outside the USA with the Medical Center Weilerbach near Ramstein.

For the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), responsible for the Middle East and thus for Iran, Germany forms a central logistical base. Flight numbers from Ramstein Air Base and Spangdahlem Air Base increased drastically during the preparation for the attack 12.

The bases in Erbil, Iraq, and Al Azraq, Jordan, which are also used by the German military, were attacked 13. Germany, France, and Great Britain have issued a statement according to which they will take the “necessary measures” to defend their own interests and those of their allies in the region. (…) Quote: “This can potentially also include, if necessary, enabling proportionate military defensive measures to destroy Iran’s ability to fire rockets and drones at the source.” This is a thinly veiled threat, poorly concealed. It is unclear whether German tanker aircraft will indirectly participate in the operations 14. This has little to do with preserving peace, as the Basic Law puts it.

At the same time, the majority of the population continues to slumber on. The refusal to realize that this country is being drawn deeper and deeper into the wars of the USA is the strongest weapon of the warmongers. Through the simulation of democracy and cognitive warfare, i.e., the attack on the brain, they have succeeded in putting the majority into a state of stupor. The mobilization of fear and resentment has led to a destruction of reason and thought 15. The democratic fighting spirit has been broken; the mental state can be described as “surrender without a fight.” [16]

The fact that Germany is an indirect party to the war is clearly registered in the Global South. This model was already tested in Ukraine. In Indonesia, for example, the largest Muslim country in the world, German citizens sometimes encounter open hostility. Germany, as Bertolt Brecht put it, sits again “soiled among the nations.” [17]

3. Expansion of the Combat Zone

An acquaintance – a businessman in Dubai – reports:

“Events are unfolding rapidly. Today – March 3, 2026 – an Amazon data center in Abu Dhabi was hit, several US fighter jets were shot down. Here, the Jebel Ali Port was hit: dense clouds of smoke. Yesterday, a hotel on the Palm was bombed, the Vermont Hotel. Then the sail-shaped Burj al-Arab Hotel and Terminal 3 of the airport – the Emirates terminal – were attacked with drones. Also the airport in Abu Dhabi and the US military bases in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.”

And further:

“The facts are completely different from the official portrayal. The Iranians have shown: We can attack the tourist and logistical infrastructure, and you can’t do anything about it. Drones were mainly used. From my apartment, I have a view over all of Dubai. I assume that the Iranians want to thin out the interceptors with these first waves, so that the defense fires its missiles before larger strikes come. A heavy strike targeted Jebel Ali Port. Because a lot of American military equipment is there. That’s the largest port in the UAE. It’s still burning there. Interestingly: There was no air raid siren, nothing. That was very strange.”

Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson and former weapons inspector Scott Ritter confirm that the Iranians precisely targeted those warehouses in the port where the CIA was storing Starlink equipment [18]. The United States has suspended work at its diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon, and severely restricted them in Doha, Dubai, and Manama.

Iran has now attacked 21 US bases, including Naval Support Activity Bahrain – the base of the 5th US Fleet can no longer be used. The carrier group stationed south of Iran had to park about 1,000 kilometers away on the high seas 19.

Furthermore, Iran has attacked Al Udeid Air Base in Doha/Qatar, Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, Camp Buehring in Kuwait, Al Dhafra Air Base in Abu Dhabi, Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, as well as five radar stations, including Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and the Army/Navy Transportable Radar Surveillance and Control Model 2, which significantly limits US early warning capabilities [20].

Two drones hit the Aramco oil refinery in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia: Dense smoke, the facility was shut down. Also attacked was a power plant in Qatar and an energy facility of Qatar Energy 21. As a result of Iranian missile strikes, the state-owned company suspended the production of materials such as polymer, methanol, and aluminum, after the corporation had already stopped LNG production due to attacks on two sites.

In Bahrain, a projectile hit a port facility. An oil tanker was attacked off Oman. In Israel, the port of Haifa was hit, among other targets.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz puts pressure on both the Gulf States and the West. Several thousand ships are backed up in front of the strait. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan see the oil price at $150 per barrel in three weeks if the situation remains unchanged 22. The gas price has already doubled. Ship insurance premiums are rising dramatically. Blackrock has suspended payouts from certain funds; investors won’t get their money back for now.

Besides the turmoil on the stock exchanges and the blocking of oil and gas transport, the Gulf States are dependent on food imports. Desert countries cannot otherwise feed their populations. A long blockade is likely to cause considerable problems 23. The UAE faces economic collapse: 17% of their GDP comes from aviation, 24% from real estate. Both sectors have come to a standstill 24.

The Gulf States obtain 90% of their water from desalination plants, which are now heavily damaged. Existing reserves will last less than ten days.

The Gulf States therefore see themselves betrayed by the USA. Because US bases attract shelling; this in turn destroys their business models. They are now invoking emergency clauses in investment agreements with the West, stopping deliveries, and will try to prevent US presence in the Gulf.

Israel has imposed a complete information blackout regarding the damage caused by Iran. But every day, hundreds of rockets and drones hit cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. These attack waves serve to overwhelm the defense systems. The Iron Dome is proving largely ineffective. The actual missile attacks are yet to come. Even now, losses are apparently greater than expected, and the population is becoming restless.

This means: The Iranians’ resistance is harder and more precise than what is heard and seen in German media. Iran is more resilient than assumed; its defense is layered in depth and apparently has enormous reserves in the east of the country.

The Iranians’ goal is to hit the West at its most vulnerable points: tourism, banking and finance, oil refineries and oil production facilities, logistics, and transport. Compared to the 12-Day War in June 2025, greater precision in the attacks can be observed.

Iran has now replaced the GPS system with the Chinese “Beidou” navigation system. This makes Iranian guided missiles largely immune to jamming. China is also providing satellite reconnaissance data. The Chinese company Mizar Vision supplies AI-supported satellite images. Additionally, Tehran put its own satellites into orbit in 2025. This enables counter-strikes according to the mosaic principle [25].

In its military response, Iran is primarily using drones, but also missiles. Its own facilities are hidden deep underground, so one may doubt whether a large number of launch pads and radar systems were actually destroyed by the Israeli and US Air Force airstrikes. Iranian air defense is now largely decentralized. Iran hasn’t even deployed the hypersonic weapons from China yet.

The country is divided into 31 defense zones. If the leadership is eliminated in a decapitation strike, the levels below continue to operate. A supporting pillar is the Basij – a paramilitary mass organization subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards and anchored nationwide in schools, businesses, and mosques. Its task is territorial security. This allows each province to function as an independent battlespace.

This mosaic principle is a strategic insurance. The killing of the elite, such as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, thus loses its intended effect. It is all the more astonishing that the USA and Israel assumed they could centrally break Iran’s capacity to act. So far, this has had no visible success [26].

However, the indiscriminate bombing of Arab countries – Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan – is a dangerous strategy. Expanding the combat zone can draw other countries into the war or prompt their governments to serve as staging areas for the US Army. This creates the risk of a conflagration.

Iran has rejected a ceasefire. It is fighting a battle for survival, a “war of decision,” in which the continued existence of the political structure will be determined. The West – namely the USA and Israel – is waging a “war of choice” – a war deliberately brought about and long prepared. The West started the war; Iran will decide when it ends.

Iran’s strategy seems to be, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, “if I go down, I will drag the region into the abyss with me.” 27

In the 12-Day War of 2025, Pakistan threatened the use of nuclear weapons if Israel used nuclear weapons. North Korea has now declared: If Tehran asks for nuclear weapons, we will deliver. This shows that this renewed war against Iran is a dance on a volcano.

4. The Strategy of the USA and Israel

The United States wants – as President Trump outlined – to force a regime change with a decapitation strike. A pattern is emerging here.

Whether it’s the attack on the residence of Russian President Putin, which was only feasible with CIA and MI6 support; whether it’s the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Maduro, which was planned long in advance; or whether it’s the renewed attack on Iran – the attack occurs each time during ongoing negotiations. Even Iran’s extensive shortly before the attack were to no avail. When the assault then took place, it became clear that negotiations were never the real goal.

This means: For Washington, diplomacy has degenerated into a deception maneuver. Negotiations are only for show. It is clear anyway that violence will be used against the top leadership of a country. The goal is the violent replacement of elites to install puppet regimes. This leads to the complete destruction of reliability 28.

War is no longer, as Clausewitz expressed it, the “continuation of politics by other means.” [29] Conversely: Politics and diplomacy become a function of war. With this, the self-proclaimed rules-based West has become a camp of desperados.

So how will attacked countries react in the future? They will tell themselves: Either the US President knew about these plans; then we cannot trust him. Or he didn’t know about them; then he doesn’t have control over his apparatus and we cannot trust him either. So it amounts to the same thing. Our backs are against the wall, and we must use all available means.

With this, we have diplomatically reached the level of pulp novels: “His hymnbook was the Colt.” With this geopolitical disinhibition, the US-led West has destroyed international law – in a long process that began with Operation Desert Storm in 1991, continued with the illegal war of aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999 and the wars against Iraq, Libya, and Syria, and has now reached its peak.

Using all available means – this significantly lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Besides this, the lesson that heads of state in the Global South learn from this is the one from North Korea: Only those who have the bomb and can threaten the complete annihilation of humanity have a chance to survive. With this, the US-led West has achieved exactly the opposite of what it supposedly wanted to achieve: ensuring that Iran does not gain the capability to build nuclear weapons.

Unlike Israel, Iran has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Americans and Israelis, with the targeted killing of Khamenei, have eliminated the very Iranian leader who wanted to forgo the atomic bomb for religious reasons [30]. The next one might draw different lessons from the Quran.

But the attack by the USA and Israel is certainly not about the nuclear program. It has been under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency for years. Iran has repeatedly declared that it refrains from building an atomic bomb. There is no evidence to the contrary so far.

If the goal was regime change in Iran, as Trump stated, then this war of aggression is meant to solve a problem that the West itself created. On August 19, 1953, the democratically elected Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh was overthrown by the illegal activities of the US and British intelligence services because he had nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company – Operation Ajax.

The subsequent Shah regime was a puppet regime of the Americans, and its secret service – SAVAK – was essentially a spin-off of the CIA.

This terror regime explains the jubilation with which Ayatollah Khomeini, returning from exile in Paris, was received after the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Peter Scholl-Latour was on board as a reporter on the machine but flew back immediately because there was no space left in Khomeini’s helicopter and he immediately saw that he would not be able to get out of the crowd. He produced his report after landing in Paris 31.

The democratically elected head of government, Abolhassan Banisadr, a highly educated intellectual, came under pressure from radical Muslims, had to flee, and subsequently lived in Versailles. There I was able to interview him several times, including on questions regarding the Iran-Contra Affair and the international arms trade [32].

In an eight-year war against Iraq, fueled by the USA and Israel with the help of third countries such as the Federal Republic, Sweden, and Belgium through arms deliveries, and by Germany also through the delivery of poison gas components [33], several hundred thousand Iranians died. That did not bring Tehran to its knees.

This means: Washington does not understand the character of this war. The desk analysts there, according to Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff at the US State Department, have no idea of the resilience of today’s 90 million Iranians [34]. The USA and Israel lack a Plan B for what happens next if the decapitation strike does not bring down the Iranian elite.

The current attack on Iran fits into the geopolitical strategy of the Neocons to force regime change in all Arab countries. The plans for regime change in Iran have been in the drawer since September 11, 2001. The Pentagon, CIA, and US Army have been working on them for years. It was just a matter of the right timing, as General Wesley Clark made public in 2007 [35].

So it’s a long-term US strategy, independent of the respective presidency. Listed were Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and finally Iran as the last state not yet pushed into chaos 36. According to US economist Jeffrey Sachs, the attack follows a strategy at least 30 years old:

“The USA and Israel strive for supremacy in West Asia. And this was implemented through a series of wars with Iran as the major goal, which have actually been ongoing since Netanyahu took office as Israeli Prime Minister.” This means: It has nothing to do with antisemitism when one makes it clear that this is about the creation of a Greater Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates 37.

The intelligence agencies CIA and Mossad, says Sachs, have left a “trail of blood in the Middle East.” It extends from Libya through Syria and Iraq to Sudan, including the genocide in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.[^38] The claim that Iran wants to build an atomic bomb was the ideal cover story for CIA and MI6 for the 12-Day War last year 39.

Meanwhile, the CIA is working on a plan to arm Kurdish troops to provoke an uprising. The Kurds are supposed to tie down Iranian forces at the border to facilitate possible protests in major cities [40]. This is a sign of weakness: After failing to overthrow the government, Iran is to be drawn into a civil war. However, involving the Kurds is likely to force a reaction from Ankara and trigger a conflagration 41.

According to the Washington Post, a maneuver of the 82nd Airborne Division of the US Army was canceled. This unit is specialized in difficult ground operations. Within the Trump team, occupying Kharg Island with its oil terminal is being considered. 90% of Iranian oil exports are handled there 42. The failure of Operation Decapitation has led to the realization that ground troops will be necessary to bring about the economic collapse of Iran.

We have a number of motives that led US President Trump to attack Iran:

The president has not delivered on domestic and economic policy. Social problems in the USA are increasing. Almost a third of Americans live below or near the poverty line; the USA is now an emigration country – as can be seen, for example, in Lisbon, where US citizens are driving up real estate and rental prices. Reindustrialization won’t succeed quickly either; it takes years to bring companies into the country because skilled workers are lacking. Before the midterm elections in November 2026, Trump is now seeking a foreign policy success that gives his Republicans tailwind. Every war brings jobs in the US arms industry.

Trump thus supports the great-power dreams of Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu. In doing so, he accommodates the Jewish lobby in the USA, which co-financed his election campaign. So here we see a pre-judgment influenced by US domestic politics. But there are additional points:

Israel sees Iran as an existential threat. Because Iran can also influence events in the region through Hezbollah or the Houthi rebels. Therefore, Netanyahu seeks not only regime change but the destruction of Iran, following the model of Syria. Israel has drawn the USA into the war. Because the warmongers in Tel Aviv and Washington fear that the window of opportunity is closing, also because China is massively supporting Iran [43].

It’s also about control of Iran’s oil and resources. 80% of Iran’s oil exports go to China, which conversely gets 12% of its oil from Iran. After the blockade of Venezuela, Beijing is dependent on Iranian oil. These shipments are to be interrupted.

Thus, it’s also about further securing the status of the dollar as the international leading currency. Because the whole world needs dollars, as 80% of oil and gas are traded in dollars. The goal is to channel new low-cost resources to US industry and thus improve the conditions for valorization and the profitability of US finance capital. The BRICS states, on the other hand, have begun to build their own financing paths beyond the dollar. The attack therefore also aims to weaken the BRICS states.

Geopolitically, it’s about controlling trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz and interrupting BRICS connectivities: the Russian North-South Corridor from St. Petersburg to the Persian Gulf and the Chinese New Silk Road project, which assigns Iran a hinge function. So, plannable connectivity is to be destroyed by military buccaneering. The West appears as a bunch of rogue states.

Overall, the attack by Israel and the USA targets not only Iran but also aims to thwart the rise of China as the central competitor of the USA 44.

In this context, Donald Trump’s political actions are by no means arbitrary or unpredictable. Rather, it’s a “strategy of targeted chaos”: contradictory statements; surprising reversals; contradictions between speech and action; threats like before a bar brawl – the goal is to create uncertainty, deliberately destroy international rules, create a sphere of lawlessness, and thereby trigger chaos. In contrast, Russia and China plan their investments long-term. Their strategy is to be thwarted by the constant generation of chaos and unpredictability [45]. That Trump plunges the entire region into chaos is not collateral damage but quite intentional.

As Chancellor Friedrich Merz hinted during his visit to Washington, Germany supports this strategy, which violates international law, and would also be willing to provide auxiliary troops. His criticism of Spain, which refuses to serve as a platform for the US attack on Iran, shows that Merz is willing to sacrifice cohesion within the EU for his transatlantic subservience. Germany has become a slavish transmission belt for Washington. Every taxi driver in Sri Lanka understands this, and therefore one should not be surprised if one is treated accordingly there and elsewhere as a German. In contrast, Germany’s transatlantically corrupted elites find pleasure in their viceroy function. The federal government appears like an occupying force in its own country, acting against the interests of the people. Today, one must be ashamed as a German in the world.

5. The Counterstrike

With a decapitation strike, the attackers succeeded in killing the Revolutionary Leader and the political and religious head of Iran. But the successors were already ready. Thus, the decapitation strike has failed.

Such decapitation strikes rarely lead to the desired result; instead, they escalate the conflict and create chaos 46. The decapitation strike will not change the political system. It will not capitulate; instead, the Revolutionary Guards will seize power more strongly.

Analyst Col. ret. Daniel Davis assesses that Khamenei willingly sacrificed himself “to serve as a martyr.” The targeted assassination has strengthened support for Iran within the country and throughout the Shiite world. The expanding protests in Muslim countries would confirm this.

Now it will be shown what resilience remains for Iran even after years of intelligence operations by the USA and Britain and after years of sanctions that have severely battered its economy. The leadership also has opponents, especially among the middle class, which is hardest hit by the sanctions and inflation. The USA wanted to fuel this discontent, but they have not succeeded in triggering an overthrow.

As US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned several times, US sanctions against Iran and a manipulative tightening of the US dollar in Iran triggered capital flight and ensured that imports could no longer be paid for. Thus, the economy collapsed, and that drove people onto the streets 47. A total of ten foreign intelligence services helped ensure that the originally peaceful protests turned violent 48.

Russia is an important partner of Iran, but the two have no military alliance. Tehran has also supplied Moscow with drones for the war in Ukraine. Although Russian forces are largely tied up in Ukraine, Moscow has delivered hypersonic weapons and other military equipment to Iran and supports it with satellite data. Because they cannot accept a severing of the North-South trade corridor. Foreign Minister Lavrov has stated that Iran will not be abandoned by Russia and China.

Conversely, Russia also faces geopolitical challenges triggered by the wars against Iran and in Ukraine:

1. In August 2025, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) was established along Armenia’s southern province of Syunik. It creates a NATO logistics corridor through the South Caucasus to the Turkish ally Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea, threatening Russia’s southern flank.

2. The new US security strategy assigns Poland the role of the central battering ram against Russia and supports Warsaw’s great-power ambitions. From a Russian perspective, this is a serious threat to Kaliningrad [49].

3. The EU is rearming: The ReArm Europe plan totals 800 billion euros, and Germany is pouring almost 100 billion into war projects. The logistics for deploying troops to the new eastern front are being expanded.

4. India did not condemn the attack on Iran with a single word. The country approached the USA again through a trade deal. This could reduce Russia’s oil revenues by double-digit billions of dollars. Now the country is switching back to Russia for oil purchases.

5. The US decision to let the New START treaty expire could lead to a new arms race. Poland is showing interest in its own nuclear weapons, and Turkey could follow a similar path. In the fifth year of the “Special Military Operation,” the NATO has succeeded in expanding the combat zone and keeping Russia under pressure [50].

On the other hand, the attack on Iran plays into Russia’s hands: The oil price rises significantly – on March 9, 2026, to more than $100 per barrel. This increases Russian state revenues and facilitates war financing, but also gives the Russian economy a boost, as demand for oil rises.

Furthermore, the new war forces Washington to split its military forces and arms production across multiple theaters and reduce supplies to Ukraine. This gives tailwind to those forces in Russia’s collective leadership who advocate an advance on Odessa. Their considerations aim to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea and establish a bridge to Transnistria.

But the most important point is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This blocks 20% of global oil and gas supplies. The Gulf States are therefore reducing energy production because storage facilities are full. Qatar has stopped gas liquefaction, and it will take weeks to restart it and supply EU countries. Last year, the European Union decided to end LNG imports from Russia by the end of December 2026 and pipeline gas imports by the end of September 2027. Both together could trigger an energy crisis surpassing the crisis during the Covid orchestration in 2020 and even that during the Arab oil embargo in 1973.

Putin has instructed his government to examine whether Russian energy exports can be diverted from Europe to Asia. Moscow is thus in a key position: The Kremlin can blackmail NATO countries to enforce its war goals in Ukraine, or it can worsen the recession of the European economy 51. The Europeans are once again in a self-inflicted dilemma.

China continues to want to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States. However, the Iranian ports are a hub of the New Silk Road. Beijing needs Iranian oil and can ill afford the loss of another energy partner after Venezuela. Therefore, Beijing supports Iran logistically, with military equipment, and in the information war. China continues to deliver weapons, e.g., 40 new fighter jets.

China is applying exactly the strategy that Washington is applying in Ukraine: De facto party to the war, but no direct participation.

Additionally, China has other levers at its disposal: It could, for example, massively reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds – at the end of 2025 amounting to $683.5 billion – thus making the refinancing of the US budget more difficult. It could also block the export of rare earths, dealing a blow to the US arms and digital industries. Furthermore, together with Russia, it could accelerate the development of new payment systems using blockchain technology, thus shrinking the sponge that globally absorbs the export of US debt. So far, about 20% of global trade is conducted outside the dollar system.

It remains open how far Beijing will go. But the view is solidifying within the Chinese leadership that the USA will definitively lose its global supremacy in this war.

Jeffrey Sachs points out that Iran possesses more missiles than Israel and the USA have effective defense systems. Furthermore, other analysts state, Iran can produce more missiles and faster than the USA. Jeffrey Sachs:

“And so this idea of regime change by the USA and Israel, like so many other delusional actions of the United States and Israel, is essentially doomed to fail.” 52

6. Perspective

Iran will now try to draw Israel and the USA into a prolonged war of attrition. It relies on the attackers soon running out of missiles. According to all analyses, the USA has munitions stocks for only a few weeks. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson writes that with an Iranian barrage of 60 ballistic missiles per day, US forces would run out of Patriot interceptor missiles within ten days. Thus, the missile shortage is worse than thought 53.

Jeffrey Sachs sees the war as an attempt by the USA to remain the regional empire in the Middle East, with Israel as the regional military power on the ground. At the same time, the USA is fighting for its previous global supremacy. “But they are not winning this fight,” the economist stated, “because in reality we already live in a multipolar world.” 54

After just a few days, one could say that the USA has lost the war. The proclaimed war goal – regime change – was not achieved. The Iranian leadership, on the other hand, soberly calculated that a war with the USA and Israel is less risky than submitting to the USA. Even the New York Times reported on this 55.

The country was well prepared for the war and is capable of enduring the conflict over a longer period. But if Iran does not capitulate, then Washington and Tel Aviv are in real trouble. This war will cause the USA to lose its vassals in the Gulf and thus its supremacy in the region [56].

For Iran, this is an existential crisis, but it will endure it in order to be able to impose its own conditions in negotiations at the end. In contrast, US analysts also see the USA as unable to endure a prolonged war of attrition.

Furthermore, according to the think tank CSIS, the military operation consumed $3.7 billion in the first hundred hours – almost a billion a day. This increases the US budget deficit and creates significant future problems 57.

As the war continues and the number of casualties on their own side rises, there will be high political pressure on Jerusalem and Washington to seek a solution. That is Tehran’s goal. The warmongers who pushed Trump to attack will then blame the president for the hoped-for victory failing to materialize.

I do not expect the Iranian population to turn against the regime. Because the people seem to be clear about the hypocrisy of US promises. They know: After a regime change, their situation would not improve.

Michael von der Schulenburg writes: “Contrary to President Trump’s announcements, this conflict is unlikely to be ended quickly. Rather, much suggests that a long, extremely bloody, and costly war lies ahead – a war that the USA and Israel could lose both militarily and politically-morally. The consequences would be extremely dangerous for the entire West.” 58

And further:

“This war has not only destroyed trust in the sincerity of the West. With it, international law based on the UN Charter has been finally destroyed – that very law that the West itself once created. With this, it has thrown wide open the door to a world order based exclusively on the right of the stronger. That all of this happens without an outcry in the Western world says a lot about the intellectual and moral state of our societies.”

But if Trump loses the war, that will also have domestic consequences. Then he and his Republicans will be punished in the midterm elections. He could thus lose the majority in Congress and become politically untenable.

Geopolitically, the attack on Iran accelerates the decline of the West. The USA is overstretching its military resources and driving its national debt ever higher. According to military analyst Daniel Davis, Iran has won this war:

“This means that the United States is defeated, humiliated, and forced to withdraw from the Middle East. Israel will be left alone among the Arab Gulf states.” 59

All current geopolitical flashpoints – Iran, Ukraine, Caucasus, Baltic Sea and Arctic, Taiwan Strait – are interconnected. The USA and its vassals are rapidly opening up new theaters of war and sabotaging peaceful conflict resolution, as they already did during the negotiations in Istanbul in spring 2022. The goal is to round off their own sphere of influence, their own claim, and to contain strategic adversaries. This involves the appropriation of extraterritorial resources such as oil, gas, and rare earths, and the occupation of trade routes, as in Panama, where Blackrock took over the majority of the Panama Ports Company last year 60.

At the same time, this strategy is pressing Russia, China, and the BRICS states strategically closer together. According to French historian Emmanuel Todd and US military analyst Douglas Macgregor, Russia has won the war in Ukraine. Both conflicts – the war in Ukraine and the war against Iran – are rearguard actions in the decline of the West, in the struggle of the US-led unipolar world against the rising forces of the multipolar world. Emmanuel Todd:

“The war in Ukraine is the beginning of a world war. One of the reasons for Russia’s victory is that it receives support from China and India. The BRICS countries are siding with Russia against the West. The war in Ukraine is developing into a global conflict between the former colonies and the West that exploited them. And within a disintegrating West, the conflicts of the past are breaking out again.”

And precisely this expansion of the war is playing out before our eyes:

“Whatever happens in Iran, the defeat of the West and its civilization is inevitable. Trump cannot stop its implosion; he is even accelerating it. The Chinese and Russians are arming the mullahs, and the Americans had to realize that one aircraft carrier was not enough. Not even two. The regime in Tehran cannot give in, and Trump cannot abandon an attack because he would truly lose face.” [61]

In this conflict, neither side can back down: Not Russia, because in Ukraine as in Iran, it’s about averting an existential threat from the USA, NATO, and Israel; not China, because all long-term plans for economic prosperity and development depend on it; not Iran, because another phase as a US colony would mean the end of today’s elite.

The West also cannot back down, neither in the Middle East nor in Ukraine. Because the defeat of the West also means the end of the neoliberal world order. But if the conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, if the conflict spirals out of control, then the world economy, already on the brink, will collapse 62.

So we are witnessing a struggle of historic dimensions, stemming from the West’s inability to react to tectonic shifts in the economy other than militarily. It can no longer adapt to politico-economic changes. This points to the mental derangement of Western elites. They are incapable of leading their countries. But the majority of the population still follows them.

7. Germany Without a Compass

Germany – like Europe as a whole and also the Gulf States – will be the big loser in this war. The renewed curtailment of gas and oil supplies will send the economy further into a tailspin. Diplomatically, Germany’s bankruptcy is evident; Germany’s reputation is squandered worldwide. A new wave of refugees is also to be expected.

Chancellor Merz acts like an influence agent of the United States. Werner Rügemer has called him a “Blackrock shit worker.” By this, he means that Merz does exactly what benefits the US financial industry. He was a leading representative of the US financial investor Blackrock for years. The firm made him a millionaire. If his pension is structured as is common in corporate management, then it is partly based on a Blackrock equity fund. It increases in value when Blackrock makes high profits. It is then plausible to fall for the belief: What is good for Blackrock and the USA is good for me and thus also for Germany.

In a certain sense, all this is shown by his visit to Washington. This visit is a political turning point in German post-war policy.

Merz has unconditionally sided with the illegal war of aggression by the USA and Israel against Iran. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder still refused to participate in the fraudulently concocted campaign against Iraq in 2003. Merz is virtually trashing international law. Even military participation in the attack on Iran is left open – quite unlike what Spain did. His reference to the necessary breach of international law because others wouldn’t adhere to it either marks the end of the peace mandate in the Basic Law and is a clear violation of the constitution.

Merz criticizes Spain’s lack of rearmament with regard to the NATO targets set by the USA. With this, he shows that subordination to US interests is more important to him than cohesion within the European Union. With this, Merz has made it clear that the EU is nothing more than a transmission belt for Washington, and Germany an unconditional vassal that denies its own interests and is willing to sacrifice the EU.

In the case of Ukraine, he boasted of having explained to the US President what could not be accepted in a peace settlement: “The front line that Ukraine is currently holding must remain.” Thus, it is clear that there should be no negotiations to end the war. Essentially, he is offering that Germany wants to continue fighting this NATO proxy war against Russia at its own expense while the USA engages in the Middle East and attacks Iran. Here we see the division of labor in the West. The transatlantic rift is a myth. Merz thus becomes a war chancellor willing to follow the USA slavishly 63.

As a result, Europe is no longer a union of equal states. It is dominated by Germany. Friedrich Merz is urging the United States to step up its involvement in the war against Russia again. He fuels the Germans’ Russophobia. He creates a perverse synthesis between Russophobia and the economic crisis caused by the war. He wants to overcome the crisis self-inflicted by Western sanctions through the militarization of industry. Emmanuel Todd analyzes:

“This is the new German doctrine for Europe. And the intelligence services are warning of a Putin attack on Germany. It has taken over Europe. The war in Ukraine is over, Russia has achieved its goal. In this world without Russian threats, nations are returning, and Germany is again becoming a dominant and self-confident power with the strongest army on the continent. The collapse of the West goes hand in hand with a return to brutality and hierarchization: you submit to the strongest and attack the weakest. That’s what the Americans are doing to the Europeans, and the Germans have accepted this by electing Friedrich Merz.”

In this complicated mix of circumstances, the federal government has lost its compass. Merz’s plan to make Germany the strongest military power in Europe is likely to trigger bitter memories in all neighboring countries. As a result, they will try to contain Germany and build a common front against Berlin.

The attempt to save jobs lost as a result of sanctions and de-industrialization by expanding arms production seems like a plan to buy time and push the true extent of the problems beyond the next election day. The ruling party cartel has maneuvered the German economy into a dead end. Instead of now correcting their own mistakes, our political elite is driving people ever deeper into the Ukraine war and the other wars of the big brother. This course will end badly – in economic agony or in an expanded European war.

What we are seeing here is the classic displacement of aggression from domestic problems onto a supposed external enemy. Increasing Russophobia and spreading racism document Germany’s civilizational regression, the impending relapse into barbarism. At the same time, we observe the structural self-enslavement to a hegemon that is lashing out like a phoenix in a nosedive. We are experiencing the disoriented actions of a West German puppet regime and the economic and political disintegration of the second German democracy.

The population gains little from this. They would have the greatest interest in us again becoming a nation of good neighbors that preserves peace. But this requires a number of prerequisites:

First, people must commit themselves to peace with Russia. It will not come by itself, and the ruling party cartel of warmongers will do nothing for peace.

Second, this party cartel must be voted out of office entirely. With these people, there will be no return to peace. Because they have tied their careers to transatlantic organizations like the German Marshall Fund, Young Global Leaders, or the Atlantik-Brücke, and are largely influence agents of the USA working against the interests of the people in Germany.

Third, the stationing agreements with the USA must be terminated. Because Germany is also a hub for the war of aggression against Iran. One should take an example from Spain here, instead of stabbing Madrid in the back.

NATO has now become the most dangerous war alliance in the world. The eastward expansion contrary to all promises to the contrary already shows this. This alliance seeks confrontation with Russia and serves Washington as a lever to split the Eurasian continent against its interests. Therefore, withdrawal from the NATO war alliance must be put on the agenda.

The European Union has abandoned its claim to be a peace project and presents itself as an anti-democratic despotism. A report by the US Congress reveals that Brussels has manipulated eight elections, restricts the public debate space through censorship measures, and forces digital corporations to “moderate,” i.e., suppress information critical of the EU 64. Such an EU no longer serves the people in Germany. We should leave the EU and go our own way together with those nations that adhere to peaceful problem-solving, like Slovakia and Hungary.

However, this depends on the population regaining its capacity to act and self-determine, taking its fate back into its own hands instead of leaving politics to the warmongers. Because these are the ones who will never lie and die in the trenches. Therefore, in the Ukraine war, but also in the Iran war: Warmongers to the front!

[3]: Presidium of Uni Kiel: Handling of research collaborations and student exchange programs with Russia. Circular to CAU students dated 26.02.2026, 10:24

[4]: “A more recent estimate of the ‘megadeaths’ of this century amounts to 187 million, which corresponds to more than one in ten people of the total world population of 1900.” Hobsbawm, Eric: The Age of Extremes. A History of the World, 1914-1991. Munich and Vienna 1995, p. 26

[5]: Preamble: The German people profess their will “to serve the peace of the world.” Art. 1 Para. 2 GG: Recognition of inviolable human rights as the foundation of peace and justice. Art 24 Para. 2: The Federation may transfer sovereign powers to a system of mutual collective security for the purpose of preserving peace. Art. 26 Para. 1 GG: Acts tending to and undertaken with intent to disturb the peaceful relations between nations, especially preparation for a war of aggression, shall be unconstitutional and shall be made a criminal offence. Art. 26 Para. 2 GG: Weapons designed for warfare may not be manufactured, transported or marketed except with the permission of the Federal Government.

[6]: Schleswig-Holstein Administrative Court, 9th Chamber, Judgment of 25.04.2023, Ref. 9 A 167/22, https://www.gesetze-rechtsprechung.sh.juris.de/bssh/document/NJRE001545846

[7]: Gramsci, Antonio: Prison Notebooks 3, 4th and 5th Notebook, Berlin 1992, p. 659

[9]: Stern, Johannes: Merz supports US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran. World Socialist Web Site, 02.03.2026, https://www.wsws.org/de/articles/2026/03/01/merz-m01.html

[16]: Harrer, Jürgen: Kampflose Kapitulation. Arbeiterbewegung 1933. Reinbek 1984

[17]: Brecht, Bertolt: Deutschland, bleiche Mutter. 1933

[18]:

Watch on YouTube

[20]: https://braveneweurope.com/larry-c-johnson-the-failure-of-us-and-israeli-air-defense https://substack.com/home/post/p-190042514 Scott Ritter: https://api.bitchute.com/video/geh4zfIE1Xxq/

[25]: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghtschi emphasized on Sunday on X: “We had two decades to analyze the defeats of the US military in the east and west of our immediate vicinity. (…) Decentralized mosaic defense allows us to decide for ourselves when and how a war ends.” https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/518498.krieg-gegen-iran-gegenschl%C3%A4ge-nach-mosaikprinzip.html

[26]: https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/518498.krieg-gegen-iran-gegenschl%C3%A4ge-nach-mosaikprinzip.html https://www.globalresearch.ca/trump-regime-israel-miscalculated-regime-change-iran/59180

[29]: Clausewitz, Carl von: On War, 1832, p. 22

[30]:

[32]: https://www.patrikbaab.de/filme/uwe-barschel https://www.patrikbaab.de/bucher

[33]: Draper, Theodore: A Very Thin Line. The Iran-Contra Affairs. New York 1992. See also: Ben Menache, Ari: Profits of War. Inside the Secret U.S.-Israeli Arms Network. New York 1992

[34]:

Watch on YouTube

[35]:

Watch on YouTube

[40]: CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say. CNN, 05.03.2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran

[43]: I follow the considerations of John J. Mearsheimer here.

[45]: Fazi, Thomas:

[49]: Korybko, Andrew: The Planned “NATO Bank” is expected to finance Europe’s impending Arms race with Russia. Substack, 04.03.2026

[50]: Korybko, Andrew: Russia Faces Five Geostrategic Challenges As The Special Operation Enters Its Fifth Year. Substack, 24.02.2025, https://substack.com/@korybko/note/c-218879214 Korybko, Andrew: Trump 2.0 Must Urgently Declare Its Position Towards Poland’s Nuclear Weapons Plans. Substack, 16.02.2026, https://korybko.substack.com/p/trump-20-must-urgently-declare-its?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[56]: The USA have entered a war they cannot win. Because they set unattainable goals.

[61]: The West at war and the reasons for its inevitable defeat: an interview with Emmanuel Todd. Strategic Culture, 04.03.2026