US stock futures climbed Monday night ahead of Tuesday’s reopening after Presidents Day, with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.4 percent while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.8 percent. European markets remained cautious with the DAX losing 0.5 percent near 24,812 as Siemens plunged over 6 percent on AI disruption concerns.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,836.17, up just 0.05 percent, while the Dow added 0.10 percent to 49,500.93. Stocks failed to sustain rallies despite encouraging inflation data showing headline CPI at 2.4 percent year over year below 2.5 percent expectations and core CPI at 2.5 percent annually, the lowest since April 2021.

Good inflation news stopped working. CPI came in better than expected and markets barely moved. That confirms exhaustion. When positive catalysts fail to produce rallies, positioning is wrong or valuations are stretched. Probably both.

AI disruption spreads to logistics and industrial The AI disruption narrative continues spreading beyond software into logistics and real estate sectors. Freight brokerage and commercial real estate stocks face structural threats as autonomous agents demonstrate capability to manage 2,000 freight loads annually per agent versus traditional human broker productivity, compressing margins across labor intensive business models.

Siemens plunged over 6 percent Monday on concerns about AI impacts on industrial automation demand. This is critical because Siemens represents old economy industrial automation that was supposed to benefit from digital transformation. Instead, AI is being viewed as a replacement for industrial controls rather than a complement.

The consequence is that AI disruption is no longer theoretical. Commercial real estate brokers crashed 12 to 14 percent last week. Now logistics and industrial automation are getting hit. Autonomous agents managing 2,000 freight loads per year versus human capacity means freight brokerage margins collapse. Any business model where labor represents a large portion of costs is vulnerable.

Infosys shares fell 2.22 percent Monday ahead of its Investor AI Day Tuesday. CEO Salil Parekh will detail AI services after revealing Infosys now works with 90 percent of its 200 largest clients on AI projects and has built over 500 agents generating 28 million lines of code. That should be celebrated as a growth opportunity. Instead the stock is down because investors are realizing that AI agents reduce the need for human developers, which is Infosys’s core business.

Indian markets remain range bound with technology stocks underperforming despite the India AI Impact Summit. When AI conferences correlate with tech stock weakness rather than strength, it signals the market is pricing disruption over opportunity.

Nvidia faces first real competitive pressure Nvidia closed Friday at $182.81, down 2.21 percent, after Arista Networks CEO revealed AMD had captured 20 to 25 percent of their accelerator deployments versus “pretty close to 99 percent Nvidia” a year ago. Forecasts project NVDA at $178.71 by Tuesday and $177.14 by end of Q1 2026.

This is the first concrete evidence that Nvidia’s dominance is being challenged in deployed infrastructure. AMD went from 1 percent to 20 to 25 percent share at a major customer in one year. That is not a rounding error. That is meaningful share loss.

The consequence is that Nvidia’s valuation assumed perpetual 99 percent share in AI accelerators. If AMD can reach 20 to 25 percent at one customer, it can do the same elsewhere. Nvidia adding $325 billion in market value two weeks ago on Amazon’s $200 billion infrastructure announcement assumed all that spending flows to NVDA. AMD taking 20 to 25 percent means $40 to $50 billion of that spending goes elsewhere.

Nvidia stock down 2.21 percent on that news is mild. If the trend continues and AMD reaches 30 to 40 percent share across hyperscalers, Nvidia’s growth assumptions collapse. The company remains dominant but loses the “only game in town” premium that justified its valuation.

Old economy earnings will confirm bifurcation Walmart and Deere both report Thursday in a compressed four day trading week. Walmart expected to show EPS of $0.73 on revenue near $190.4 billion. Deere expected to report EPS around $1.90 to $2.10 on revenue of $7.50 billion representing 35 percent year over year declines.

Deere down 35 percent confirms depression-level demand in agricultural equipment. Ford missed badly two weeks ago. Now Deere reports the worst decline in years. The old industrial economy is collapsing while AI infrastructure booms. That bifurcation cannot sustain equity indices near all-time highs unless AI growth is large enough to offset industrial decline.

Walmart’s results will show whether the consumer is stabilizing after December’s flat retail sales. If Walmart disappoints, it confirms that consumption is weakening despite strong January jobs. That would validate concerns that the labor market is a lagging indicator and the real economy is already slowing.

Fed minutes and what they reveal FOMC minutes from the January meeting release Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, providing insight into policymakers’ thinking about future rate cuts following Friday’s benign CPI report. Core CPI at 2.5 percent is the lowest since April 2021. That should support rate cut expectations.

But January jobs beat expectations with wage growth at 3.7 percent. The labor market remains tight even as inflation cools. The minutes will reveal whether the Fed views cooling inflation as sustainable or as temporary relief before wage pressures reignite price increases.

Brent crude traded at $68.58 per barrel Monday, up 1.23 percent. Oil holding near $68 despite oversupply concerns shows the market is balanced. Not strong enough to signal demand growth, not weak enough to panic about recession.

CPI better than expected failed to rally stocks. AI disruption spreading to logistics and industrials. Nvidia losing share to AMD. Deere down 35 percent. Fed minutes Wednesday and old economy earnings Thursday will determine whether the market can hold current levels or whether the slow grind lower continues.