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Crypto Report - Jan 26th

By YeKanEast January 26, 2026

Weekly Macro & Crypto Market Report — January 26, 2026

#tags: macro crypto BTC ETH SOL PMI RealYields Liquidity Obsidian #related: [[Macro Framework]], [[Crypto Liquidity Models]], [[BTC - Risk Regimes]], [[ETH - Risk Regimes]], [[SOL - Risk Regimes]]

2. Real Yields — Finally Receding (🟡)

Real yields have stopped rising and have begun a modest downward trend. This shift reflects:

  • Weak (but softening) labor market data
  • Slower growth expectations
  • Stable inflation expectations
  • Modest safe-haven buying in long bonds

This is an important regime change: the worst of real-yield headwinds appears behind us.

Crypto Impact:

  • BTC: Gains traction as real yields recede
  • ETH: Slowly regaining positive correlation
  • SOL: Starts to benefit, though remains risk-sensitive

Signal: 🔴 → 🟡 (shifting to supportive)
Backlinks: [[Real Yields and Crypto]], [[Bond Market Macro Signals]]

4. Asset-Level Crypto Outlook

Ethereum (ETH) — Breaking Lag Phase (🟡 → 🟢)

ETH is beginning to show stronger relative performance as real yields decline modestly and liquidity normalizes.

ETH Outlook:
Displays early signs of breakout conditions once real yields enter a clear downtrend.

Backlinks: [[ETH - Macro Drivers]], [[ETH Liquidity Dependency]]

5. Macro Traffic Light Summary

  • PMI: 🟡 → 🟢 (bottoming toward expansion)
  • Real Yields: 🟡 (softening, becoming supportive)
  • Liquidity: 🟢 (supportive regime)

Composite Crypto Signal: 🟢
Interpretation: Macro conditions are turning bullish for BTC, ETH, and SOL — especially for BTC in the short-to-medium term.

6. Bottom Line Summary

  • PMI is near a cyclical bottom and approaching expansion phase
  • Real yields have stopped rising and are beginning to soften
  • Liquidity has improved and is supportive rather than restrictive
  • BTC leads, ETH follows, SOL remains high-beta but improving

Macro = Early Cycle Expansion Phase (Risk Assets Re-engaging)

Backlinks: [[Macro Cycle Phases]], [[Crypto Strategy - Accumulation vs Expansion]]

#tags #related #macro #btc
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