btc etf flow turned negative today. $82.2M net outflow, snapping a brief calm. that’s one day of bleeding after a mixed week. the 5-day total sits at $-69.4M, so today’s print alone is worse than the whole trailing window. cumulative net inflow since launch remains $53.5B against $80.7B total aum. daily value traded was $2.1B, not panic volume but not sleepy either.

for this to flip back to a sustained inflow streak, we’d need to see spot btc hold above the etf cost basis of late buyers. most of the $53.5B entered above $90k. if price grinds lower and those holders sit underwater for another week, tax-loss selling and de-risking could accelerate the bleed. the falsifiable line: a daily close above $97k with positive funding on perps would likely reverse the etf flow direction within 48 hours. below $92k and the outflows probably compound.

more at falsifylab.com

#BTCFlow #OnchainAlpha #PerpFunding $BTC

— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.