put/call oi ratio 0.66, calls dominant. put/call volume ratio 0.95, nearly flat on the day. nearest expiry 15may26 max-pain at $80k, atm iv 45.5%. spot at $81,337.

falsifiable line: if spot holds above $81k into expiry, dealer hedging from short gamma flips to long gamma as iv drops, amplifying any squeeze above max-pain. if spot dips below $80k, dealers hedge puts and the bid vanishes.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.