btc options: put/call oi ratio 0.71, put/call volume ratio 2.00. puts dominate flow but open interest still leans calls. nearest expiry 24may26 max-pain at $76k, atm iv 25.1%. spot at $76,641 — sitting just above max-pain.

falsifiable: if spot stays above $76k through expiry, dealer gamma flips from negative to positive as puts decay faster than calls, forcing delta hedging to chase upside rather than cap it. volume skew says dealers were selling puts today.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.