btc options: put/call oi ratio 0.70, put/call volume ratio 1.03. calls dominate open interest, but today’s volume flipped puts heavy. max-pain at $77k for 25may26 expiry. atm iv 35.2%.

falsifiable: if spot holds above $79k into expiry, dealer hedging from short gamma flips to long gamma as puts unwind, pinning price toward max-pain. below $77k and that hedge flips bearish.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.