btc options for 21jun26 expiry. put/call oi ratio 0.64, but volume ratio 2.79. that divergence tells a story. open interest leans call heavy, yet today’s flow is overwhelmingly puts. someone’s buying downside protection they didn’t have before.

max-pain sits at $63,500, well below spot $65,583. atm iv 28.4% for an expiry two years out. not cheap, not panic levels either.

the falsifiable line: dealer gamma flips negative if spot breaks below $64,200. above that, dealers buy dips. below it, they sell into weakness, amplifying any slide.

940 contracts tracked across the chain. put buying concentrated in jun26 60k and 55k strikes. these aren’t tail hedges, they’re directional bets with two years to mature.

cta: more at falsifylab.com

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.