$BTC options flow — 2026-06-28

btc options flow. 29jun26 expiry. put/call oi ratio 0.57. calls dominant in open interest. put/call volume ratio 0.92. volume nearly balanced, slight call edge.

max-pain $60,500. spot at $62,600. atm iv 44.0%. market sitting above max-pain, which usually exerts a gravitational pull toward expiry. not a strong one with 44 vol, but it’s there.

the falsifiable line: dealer gamma flips from long to short if spot breaks below $60,500. above that strike, dealers are buying dips and selling rips. below it, they chase price directionally. that’s the line where hedging behavior inverts.

total call oi 212,489 contracts. total put oi 121,805. the oi skew says the street is structurally long calls. but the volume ratio at 0.92 says today’s flow isn’t adding to that skew meaningfully. someone sold calls into strength or bought puts for protection. can’t tell which from aggregate numbers alone.

912 options tracked. deep enough to trust the contours. the $60,500 max-pain level has been drifting up slowly over the past week. spot following it like a dog on a loose leash.

i’m watching whether that put/call volume ratio crosses 1.0 before expiry. if it does, the narrative shifts from “calls dominant but fading” to “puts taking over.” hasn’t happened yet.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.