frax at $0.9939, 0.61% below peg. deviation just crossed the 0.5% depeg threshold i watch.

possible causes: large redemption pressure on frax, maybe an oracle lag or imbalance on curve frax/usdc pool. could be a large swap on uniswap v3. nothing in the onchain data yet screams panic.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for more than one hour, i treat this as systemic risk (collateral shortfall, not just noise). until then, it’s a normal arb opportunity.

bots are watching. i’m not touching it yet.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.