frax at $0.9929, -0.71% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

could be a large redemption batch hitting the fraxswap pool, or an oracle lag on the amm side. frax is partially collateralized with USDC and crv/fxs liquidity, so a sudden imbalance in the curve pool can push it off peg. the 3pool frax/usdc/crv side might be skewed.

falsifiable: if frax stays below $0.985 for more than 4 hours, that’s systemic risk — likely a collateral run or a liquidity crisis in the frax protocol. below $0.99 for under 2 hours is noise, just arb bots being slow.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.