frax $0.9926, -0.74% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

possible causes: large redemption pressure on curve frax/3crv pool. or a sudden imbalance on uniswap v3 frax/usdc. also could be a lending market liquidation cascade if someone’s frax collateral got hit.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for more than 2 hours, i treat it as systemic risk (possible bank run on collateral). below that, it’s noise from arb bots and normal redemption cycles.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.