frax at $0.9918, 0.82% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

possible causes: large redemption pressure from fraxswap or curve pools, oracle latency on frax price feeds, or a sudden imbalance in the frax-eth pair on hyperliquid. lending markets like aave or compound may be liquidating frax positions if collateral ratios shifted.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for more than 2 hours, i treat it as systemic risk (protocol insolvency or oracle attack). under that, noise from normal arb cycles.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.