frax at $0.9900, 1% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

what’s happening: likely a large redemption cycle hitting the curve pool. frax relies on its amm for liquidity, and when redemptions outpace arb bots, the pool price drifts. no oracle manipulation here — frax uses a time-weighted oracle for its own peg, but the curve pool price is what matters for swaps.

falsifiable: if frax stays below $0.985 for more than 2 hours, treat as systemic — that’s where frax’s own collateral ratio starts to get tested. under that, it’s noise from a single whale exiting.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.