frax at 0.9883, 1.17% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

what’s happening: large redemption pressure on frax, likely from someone exiting a curve or uniswap pool. oracle feed still live, no sign of manipulation. exchange imbalance tilting sell side on frax/usdc pairs.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below 0.9750 and stays there for 6 hours, i treat it as systemic — algo stablecoin contagion risk. below 0.98 for a few hours is noise, just arb bots being slow.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.