frax at $0.9864, -1.36% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

likely cause: large redemption pressure on frax v3 or an oracle pricing lag. frax uses a mix of amm pools and collateralized debt, so a sudden imbalance in the frax/usdc pool on uniswap or curve could pull it off peg. could also be a borrower closing a large position in the frax lending market.

falsifiable: if frax stays below $0.98 for more than 2 hours, i treat it as systemic risk (collateral shortfall or oracle manipulation). if it recovers above $0.99 within an hour, noise.

watching the redemption queue and crv pool depth.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.