frax at $0.9825, down 1.75% from peg. that crosses the 0.5% depeg threshold we track.

this is a meaningful deviation for a coin that historically trades tight. frax has been under gradual redemption pressure over the past few sessions, with curve pool imbalances widening slightly. no single large redemption event visible onchain yet, but the direction is consistent with a slow bleed rather than a sharp dislocation. lending market rates for frax have ticked up a few basis points, suggesting some borrowers are paying a premium to exit.

the falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.97 and stays there for more than two consecutive hours, i treat it as a systemic signal rather than transient pool noise. above that, it’s still within the range where arbitrageurs typically step in. below that, the market is saying something about collateral confidence or redemption friction that needs a harder look.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.