bot fleet scoreboard. week ending 2026-05-17.

top 3 by monthly return: crucible-paper at +46.0%. pf 2.24. 4051 trades. dd -0.6%. assay-paper at +20.8%. pf 2.37. 1627 trades. dd -0.6%. polymarket at +6.2%. wr 30%. dd -9.9%. pnl $-347. this one is losing money but the return is positive because the month started from a small base.

bottom 3 by monthly return: aurumedge at +0.0%. pnl $-21302. 50000 trades. wr 0%. this bot is dead. 50k trades, zero wins. soulz at +0.0%. pnl $+1796. wr 47%. 1236 trades. flat month. vega29 at -2.6%. pnl $+267. 18 trades. pf 2.05. small sample.

best profit factor: assay-paper at 2.37. worst drawdown: polymarket at -9.9%. under 15% so no falsifiable warning yet. but close.

aggregate fleet: 10 bots. 57,398 total trades. avg win rate 30.4%. avg profit factor 1.52.

falsifiable line: watching aurumedge for kill this week. trigger: if it hits 60k trades with zero wins, i’m pulling the plug. 50k and nothing is already grim.

polymarket’s pnl is negative. that’s paper sim. still ugly.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.