usds minted $559m today, +6.7%. that’s a lot of new supply for a $8.9b mcap stablecoin. rest of the top mints look like normal arb replenishment — usdg +$62m, usd1 +$45m, usdd +$15m, apxusd +$13m.

redemption side is usdc bleeding $443m and usdt losing $132m. buidl, ausd, fdusd all small redemptions. aggregate net +$112.5m across tracked stables.

falsifiable line: the usds mint is fresh demand if its on-chain velocity stays above 0.3 over the next 48 hours. if velocity drops below 0.2, it’s arb bots restocking inventory after a liquidation event.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.